Election of the Day

Today, the United States will hold a handful of elections at the State level, and considerably more local elections.

There are two gubernatorial elections, and the outcome is in some doubt in both of them. In both cases, these are not so much ideological battles, and more tests of the extent of the power of the sharp negative polarization that has gripped the country. Both Kentucky and Mississippi are solidly Red states where the Democratic candidate has a chance: a pretty good one in Kentucky, some recent polling notwithstanding, where the Democrat has a chance because he’s a popular incumbent, and a longshot chance in Mississippi, where a fairly disciplined and talented moderate is mounting a challenge against a the least popular Republican Governor in the country in one recent survey.

The legislative election to watch is obviously Virginia, where Democrats are defending their Senate majority and attempting to retake the house. Governor Youngkin is betting heavily on the Lindsay Graham strategy, that a strong ban on abortions from the 15th week of pregnancy on, a regime more restrictive than what Roe ensured, is the way to moderately triangulate away the Democratic advantage on this issue. I remain skeptical this is a sound strategy, but we’ll know more about that soon enough. The prediction nerd community seems to give Democrats the edge in both houses, albeit without much confidence. The New Jersey state legislature is also up for re-election as well; the consensus view is that a Democratic hold is highly likely, but for those watching elections today for clues about the relative electoral strength of Republicans and Democrats as 2024 looms, the margins, both in statewide popular vote and in number of seats won, matter.

Here in Ohio, lawless Republican gerrymandering has kneecapped representative democracy for the foreseeable future, but plebiscitary democracy is not dead yet. Should issue 1 pass, it will entrench a constitutional right to abortion, such that it cannot be changed by any mechanism other than a statewide vote. Issue 2 would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana. Local consensus appears to be that both will pass without much drama, although perhaps at a lower rate than the August election (in which a Republican initiative to require a 60% threshold for these kinds of votes) was defeated by 14 points. For issue 1, the margin of victory matters in our assessment of the strength of the Dobbs backlash; for issue 2, the margin matters for an entirely different reason: as a piece of initiated legislation, it doesn’t have constitutional status and can be amended in various ways by a hostile state legislature; the degree to which the Ohio legislature may attempt to do that will almost certainly be influenced by the size of the victory.

Beyond these headline elections, numerous other important elections will take place today. This is not an exhaustive list; if you’ve got something else you’re involved in locally or otherwise following, please tell us about it in comments.

In Pennsylvania, a vacancy on the Supreme Court, created over a year ago by the death of (Democratic) Chief Justice Max Baer, will be filled. The urgency of this election is tempered by the fact that Democrats will retain control of the body either way, 4-3 if they lose and 5-2 if they win, and that the Trumpier, more extreme election-denialist lost in the Republican primary, but one of the current Democratic Justices has been idiosyncratic on some voting rights issues, so this election may have some real short term as well as and long term implications.

Also in Pennsylvania, on the “anxious about the 2024 election” front, county commission races in places like Bucks, Chester, Berks and other counties are well worth watching. County commissions have significant discretion over drop box placement, ballot curing rules, and more.

In Cleveland, an ideologically attractive and practically dubious “people’s budget” scheme that would put 2% of the city’s budget under the plebiscitary control of the citizenry. (I’d find this easier to support if it were new revenue, rather than blowing a hole in the existing budget.)

The RCV revolution in local blue constituencies looks to roll on in Michigan, where voters in Kalamazoo, East Lansing, and Royal Oak will decide whether to follow Ann Arbor in adopting this electoral reform.

There are far too many mayoral and city council elections to cover here, but one I’m closely watching given my idiosyncratic interests is Chapel Hill, NC, where the “CHALT slate,” led by Mayoral candidate Adam Searing, is attempting a reactionary NIMBY homeowner takeover of city government. It’s been a pretty ugly, nasty fight. Triangle blog blog, an excellent local group blog comprised of writers advocating for an inclusive, welcoming pro-housing agenda have endorsed an attractive slate of candidates, and for their efforts have been doxxed and harassed at work for their efforts. These kinds of political fights are obviously important for people who live and work in Chapel Hill and would like a chance to be homeowners on a middle class salary without generational wealth and/or not priced out of the rental market, but in larger sense they’re crucial for the political future of the country, insofar as Democrats winning purple states will to some degree hinge on whether attractive liberal cities in those states allow themselves to grow.

Spokane, an island of (light) blue in the sea of Red that is Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho, is seeing a well-funded slate of conservatives running against an impressively progressive city council, and a fairly strong Democrat challenging the incumbent Republican mayor. The council has (something in cooperation with, sometimes in spite of, the Republican mayor) charted an impressive path on housing reforms, particularly given how new and recent the need for them has been.

As always Boltsmag has a great guide to elections of significance today, covering far more than I can or would attempt to do. Vote early and often.