War

The situation remains unclear, but as of this moment we are eight hours into a large-scale Hamas attack on Israeli territory, comprising thousands of rocket attacks and ground incursions into the kibbutzim and towns surrounding Gaza. Over five hundred Israelis are injured and the death toll currently stands at 22 and will unquestionably rise. Israeli towns have been taken over by Hamas, with residents calling into news studios to report terrorists going house by house and attempting to penetrate secure rooms. There are still-unconfirmed reports of hostage situations, and kidnappings into Gaza.

By this evening I expect the worst of the incursion to be repelled, but it must be said: this was a monumental intelligence, military, and government failure. The supposed hermetic containment of Gaza has been proven to be an illusion, with civilians left to fend for themselves while the army and the police are nowhere in sight. Injured and trapped Israelis have been crowdsourcing relief online and by calling into news programs. The government, military, and police leadership have been shockingly silent, with only a few pre-recorded statements released by Netanyahu and defense minister Gallant, and few representatives showing up to actually speak to reporters.

For a decade, the approach of the right-wing governments of Israel to the Palestinian territories has been one of divide and conquer. In order to create a reality in which there is “no partner” for peace, they have promoted Hamas as the leadership of Gaza—including passing funds from Qatar. This approach resulted in non-stop rocket attacks, and occasional terror attacks, on Israelis in the South of Israel, which would periodically spill over into the center of the country. But, however much official Israeli statements claimed otherwise, this was perceived by the right as an acceptable cost, especially as it allowed them to continue to expand West Bank settlements. Now the cost of that strategy is becoming clear.

Beyond the symbolic choice of the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, there are any number of reasons why Hamas may have chosen to launch such a large-scale attack, one which they realistically have no hope of surviving as an organization. There have been the escalating attacks on Palestinian civilians on the part of Israeli settlers (and with the support of the Israeli army), though personally I find that explanation unconvincing. More plausible to me is the idea that this attack—and its inevitable backlash—are intended to scuttle Biden’s planned tripartite accord between Israel, the US, and Saudi Arabia, and more generally, the concept of the Abraham Accords, the idea that it is possible for the Middle East to normalize relations with Israel without addressing the Palestinian issue.

As for what happens next, Hamas is strongly urging other organizations, including outside of Israel, to join in their attack. We shall see if that happens. But as for the future of Gaza, I’m afraid that it is grim. A ground assault in Gaza would be disastrous for both sides (though the Palestinians, and especially civilians, will bear the brunt of the damage and loss of life). But especially if there are kidnapped Israelis it seems very likely to happen. For reasons political, military, and psychological, Israel will not be able to allow this incursion to pass without a horrific response, and I suspect things will get much worse before they get better.