NFL Open Thread: Too Belichick to Fail edition

Bill Belichick was able to resist the attrition that eventually pulls coaches and organizations down for a long time (and the idea that this was just because he had Brady is really dumb.) But with the Patriots offense looking just as dead as it was under Matt Patricia and the defense decimated by injuries, it has definitely happened. If just a typical good coach with personnel control had gotten this kind of sloppy performance out of a roster devoid of interesting offensive talent, the question would not be whether he would be coaching the team next year but whether he’d be able to survive this one. Belichick isn’t going to get fired midseason and shouldn’t be, but what should Kraft do going forward? I like this idea of offering Belichick the opportunity to stay but only accompanied by a real personnel guy and with a real coaching staff stripped of his underperforming cronies and literal sons:

The Belichick era essentially ended when the Bills crushed the Patriots in the 2021 playoffs, exposing then-rookie Jones as a mirage. Everything since then has been spent fumes and recycled plotlines. Yet Belichick still reigns, and the organization risks a further slide into mediocrity if he cannot be dethroned. 

One does not simply “fire” Bill Belichick like he’s Urban Meyer or Adam Gase. It’s a task that requires diplomacy, finesse and a little fortitude.

When Patriots owner Robert Kraft and his son/team president Jonathan Kraft decide to move on from Belichick, they will not just be replacing a coach and general manager but an entire decision structure. Everyone in Patriots football operations — assistant coaches, the personnel department, scouts, trainers, the equipment staff — was hired by Belichick or by someone hired by Belichick. It’s a machine that ran smoothly for 23 years but has shed a lot of its most important parts and has grown so clunky that it makes more sense to replace it than overhaul it.

Saddling some newcomer with the existing Patriots structure would be setting them up for failure. Just imagine some coach trying to establish an Eagles-style offense and 49ers-style defense using Belichick-chosen-and-trained college and pro scouts and strength-and-conditioning staff. It would take years for that new coach just to get the incumbents — some of whom have Super Bowl rings on both hands — to come around to his philosophy. 

[…]

Belichick is too powerful and prestigious to fire. Therefore, the Patriots must strip away some of his power and prestige.

Perhaps the Krafts hire a new President of Football Operations, some young hotshot from the Eagles/49ers/Chiefs/Bills front office, someone with personnel power who comes between them and Belichick on the org chart. This new personnel guru replaces or supersedes Matt Groh, the Belichick-approved Patriots lifer with nominal personnel authority. He assumes control of the cap and scouting departments. He runs the draft. He creates his own power base full of people whose resumés do not begin with: started his career as a Patriots quality control assistant in 2009 …

Maybe that solves the problem: The newcomer upgrades the roster, Belichick concentrates on his defense. Or maybe Belichick grunts at the Krafts the way he grunts at reporters and types up a resignation letter. If Belichick leaves on his own terms, everyone gets to save face. Throw him a halftime ceremony. Buy him a battleship or something as a going-away gift. 

The Krafts could also demand some control over coaching decisions. No more bringing back Bill O’Brien, Josh McDaniels, Joe Judge or Matt Patricia when they fail elsewhere. Brian and Steve Belichick need to go coach in Tennessee or at Alabama to prove their mettle. Demand that the team take on a Mini McVay, a non-loyalist with ideas of his own, to run the offense. 

The biggest problem facing the team is that after many years of being an analytics-savvy offensive innovator, Belichick has contracted a late but very serious case of Defensive Coordinator As Head Coach disease, running a plodding, risk-averse-yet-sloppy, hyper-conservative offense. (The contrast with how the Dolphins surrounded Tua with speedy playmakers is particularly striking.) He is the most accomplished coach the league has ever seen, but it’s hard to see things getting better without injecting some fresh thinking. And if he isn’t willing to deal with that, it’s probably best for everyone that he move on.