NFL Open Thread: Exhuming McCarthy edition

After Dak Prescott had an off year driven largely by a somewhat fluky run of incerceptions, the Cowboys decided that the solution to their offensive problems would be to part with their OC and turn playcalling duties over to Mike “the man who made Aaron Rodgers mediocre” McCarthy. The TEXAS COAST offense is going exactly as well as you’d expect:

Prescott’s interception rate has dropped between 2022 and 2023—even after his three-pick performance against San Francisco—so the changes have led to the desired result. But the desired result hasn’t led to overall offensive improvement. While Dak’s interception numbers are down, so are the rest of his stats—including yards per attempt, expected points added per play, QBR, and success rate. The Cowboys offense ranks 19th in both offense and pass DVOA, and their only wins have come over Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. And it’s not just the passing game, either. Dallas ranks 22nd in run DVOA, and Tony Pollard, finally out of Ezekiel Elliott’s shadow, is averaging minus-0.11 EPA per rush, 25th in the NFL, per TruMedia.

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Instead, McCarthy decided to start from scratch. He’s calling more passes on early downs this season, which analytics will tell you is a good thing. But not all passes are equally efficient. McCarthy is using a lot of “quick-game” calls, which aren’t nearly as productive as longer dropbacks—they’re mostly seen as an extension of the run game, and as with a run call, the primary goal is to pick up just enough yards to keep the offense ahead of the chains. But I’m not sure that’s how McCarthy views them. Based on his play-calling this year, he seems to think those short, largely inefficient throws are the foundation of his pass game: The Cowboys’ quick-game usage rate is double what it was last year, per PFF.

The increase in quick passes is largely responsible for the decline in Prescott’s production this season. On “run downs,” which TruMedia considers any play on first down or second-and-medium, Prescott is completing 70.9 percent of his passes with an “on-target throw” rate that ranks fifth best in the NFL. But he ranks just 20th in both yards and EPA per dropback on those plays, and 35.7 percent of his “run down” completions have lost EPA for the Cowboys, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Dak is executing the plays as they are designed; the play designs just aren’t very good.

In obvious passing situations, though, Prescott has been far more efficient. While he ranks 11th in EPA per dropback overall on pass plays, if you strip out play-action and screen passes, which are more dependent on play design than on a QB’s processing skills, he jumps to fifth, according to TruMedia. Dak is still the Dak of old; he’s just stuck in a poorly designed offense.

If the Cowboys are going to fix their offensive issues, they should focus on early downs, which is where we’ve seen the biggest change in play-calling. McCarthy has done away with all the wacky stuff Moore used to do, like funky backfield sets, six offensive linemen personnel groupings, pre-snap shifts and motion in the passing game, and overloaded formations that put three or four receivers to one side of the field. That means more static and symmetrical formations with half-field concepts to either side. It’s a generic-ass offense. It’s an NCAA Football 14–ass offense. It’s like someone searched “football play” on Getty Images and turned the results into a playbook.

I hate watching it, but I’m sure opposing defenders love it because it makes their jobs easier. All the complexity is stripped out of the scheme (by design, mind you), so it’s easier for defenses to sit on some of McCarthy’s favorite calls. For instance, Dallas has run a double slant concept 15 times this season—only the Bengals have run it more, per PFF. The Cowboys are averaging minus-0.40 EPA on those plays, and it’s because defenses know those routes are coming.

If Jerry ever gets sick of this, remember that Matt Particia has offensive coordinating experience now! Anyway, let’s take some trips down memory lane and look at some highlights of McCarthy’s coaching genius:

“WHOA I don’t think this is going to work out!” great call by Nantz.