Kentucky Election Update

We’re two weeks out. Here’s the state of the polling:

That’s obviously a lot less than you’d like in terms of data points. Beshear has a substantial lead in fundraising and spending, although some PACs are keeping Cameron afloat. The Cameron campaigned pushed out a partisan poll that showed him only two points behind a few days ago, but the bona fides don’t look very bona or fide.

Here’s the big ad that Beshear has been hitting Cameron with:

Cameron has been trying to run against Joe Biden…

I would say that nearly everyone here has priced in a Beshear victory, the only question being the margin. Of course it’s an awfully red state and you never know, but it would be awfully surprising at this point to see Cameron pull it out. Worth noting, though, that he did massively overperform his polling in the GOP primary, although that may say more about Kelly Craft than Cameron.

One of the big questions in this race has been how far Beshear would shift right in order to put Cameron away. The evidence on that is mixed; as noted above, he’s hit pretty hard on abortion, albeit of the “rape and incest” exception line of attack. Several of his ads include Trump voters who claim that they’ll vote Beshear, which incidentally also accords with my experience as a canvasser. His ads have also talked up his connection with police and have claimed credit for a tax cut that he vetoed before he signed. But he hasn’t run against any national Democrats, and he hasn’t embraced any notable apostasy against the contemporary Democratic Party.

Obviously, if Andy wins in Kentucky by 16 points we’ll have to have a conversation about his future, but that conversation can wait a couple of weeks.