Tokmak?

Worth paying attention to.

Ukraine continues to make slow progress in its counteroffensive, especially on the Zaporizhzhia axis in the push south toward Melitopol, officials in Kyiv and Washington are saying. It’s an assessment at least partially shared even by a number of Russian ‘milblogger’ Telegram channels and those of appointed officials.

After retaking Robotyne earlier in the week, Ukrainian troops are advancing toward Novoprokopívka, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff. That town, about two miles south of Robotyne, sits aside the key TO408 highway and is a little more than 10 miles north of the city of Tokmak, which Russia has turned into a fortified garrison. As we have noted before, taking or bypassing Tokmak on a push south will be a major step toward making it to Melitopol, which as we said in December is a major objective in Ukraine’s desire to reach Crimea and cut off the so-called land bridge to choke off Russian forces.

You don’t love this map from a Russian perspective:

We’ll see. Always have to approach these situations with great care from the perspective of an observer. Of course a line that is breeched can very rapidly cease to be any kind of line at all, but we don’t have a firm grip on the depth of Russian defenses here or what the Ukrainians have in reserve. Also worth noting that Zelensky is feeling domestic pressure to make progress.