The 31 Classified Documents
By Out of the hundreds of classified documents that Donald Trump stored at Mar-a-Lago and possibly Bedminster, the Department of Justice chose 31 to charge him with. Choosing those documents includes many factors: the possibility that those documents might have to be made public, how they illustrate the legal issues, and perhaps an overall story of why Trump held onto them so tenaciously.
With Trump, it’s always safe to assume that his actions are random. Benefit to himself is also likely, but what kind of benefit? The ego benefit of being able to wave them around to show his importance? Or a financial benefit? With classified documents, either motivation could have geopolitical implications.
Knowing what’s in the documents could help understand both Trump’s motives and the implications of his possessing them. But the government will likely try to keep as much classified as possible. Matt Tait is trying to figure out what the documents are, mainly from coincidences of the document dates with world events. He lists the documents in a more readable form and gives a guide to the classification markings.
When I first looked at the list,
my overwhelming impression was that they were all, except one, products of the intelligence services, from both human intelligence and signals intelligence. Thus, an ego-driven motive would fit with Trump’s glee that a document was prepared for him. as documented on tape and quoted in the indictment. These documents were prepared for the President of the United States at the time Trump was President. They were not prepared for Donald Trump, the person. Trump does not understand that and so might have kept these trophies of the most secret agencies of the US government catering to his needs.
A second look at the list shows that many of the documents have to do with the military readiness of the US and other countries, along with Presidential Daily Briefings (PDBs, most likely the ones marked as White House briefings), which frequently deal with such subjects. Many of the classification markings are ‘way up there, too. Compartmented – the X’s stand in for signifiers of compartments whose designators are classified. REL FVEY – shared with or related to United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, known as the Five Eyes. TK – Satellite or overflight intelligence.
The one document that is clearly not intelligence data is number 19: S/FRD (Secret/Formerly Restricted Data) – Nuclear Weaponry of the United States. Formerly Restricted Data remains classified, but it comes from a different system. Restricted Data is defined by statute and cannot be declassified by a president’s delusions. The classification exists to allow Restricted Data, about nuclear weapons, to be shared with the military and handled under National Security Information procedures. This document might be about some of the characteristics of nuclear weapons or where they are stationed. Probably not design data.
Another distinctive document is number 11, which bears no classification markings, nor a date. Tait speculates that this is the Milley document that Trump chortles was made just for him. Tait does not say it explicitly, but the idea that it predates Milley’s tenure and is not his document implies that it is one of the many contingency war plans that the military regularly generates and updates. I disagree with this. In this case, Trump’s egocentricity may have a basis. This may be something that Milley generated particularly for him. A military contingency plan would have both classification markings and date. If I am right, this document will figure in the trial in support of the taped and quoted conversation in which Trump is showing off “his” documents.
It may be amusing to see what Milley tried to buy Trump off with, and that Trump accepted.
The other documents that Tait tentatively identifies include the possible communication between Trump and Vladimir Putin after Trump withdrew the US from the INF Treaty. That would be a pro-forma communication for any other president, but, given the suspicions raised by their Helsinki meeting and other actions throughout the Trump presidency, would be of interest to many.
Most of the rest have to do with the Middle East, but Tait has speculatively identified only a dozen of the documents. I’m grateful to him for that and looking forward to further speculations from him and others.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner