Employer-Government Alliance Asserting Control

For most of American history, employers and the government have combined to keep workers under control. The only meaningful victories for unions have happened when that alliance is neutralized or minimized. Today, the Biden administration wants to be the most pro-union in history. Well, it isn’t exactly that, but it’s certainly taken steps in the right direction. However, what it lacks is the vision or power to really reshape the whole relationship. Biden’s pro-union policies are good ones, but they are also rather intentionally baby steps. Part of that is the inability to pass the PRO Act, which would be a great law that would reset those relationships, but that’s not Biden’s fault, not so long as the the median senator is Joe Manchin. Otherwise, it’s been tweaking this and that. I’m not really criticizing Biden here; people do vastly overstate the power of the presidency. But what is being missed is the disconnect between those pro-worker policies and other policies inside the government, including the obsession to lower inflation. That, the deal to force student loan payments to begin again, and similar steps have the cumulative result of disciplining American workers.

One major way workers have expressed power since the pandemic is quitting their crappy jobs, which they had the ability to do thanks to government issued payments. Other than that being an interesting experiment in a Universal Basic Income program, it just gave workers time to consider what they actually wanted out of work and life. And not surprisingly, many of them did not want what they had. But that seems to be ending as employers again gain the upper hand on workers.

Now, experts say the phenomenon is finished. Ten straight interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, slowing wage growth, stubborn inflation and mass layoffs in some industries may be causing Americans to stay put.

“The great resignation, by really any measure, is over,” said Nicholas Bloom, a professor of economics at Stanford University who studies labor economics. The combination of a tight labor market and structural change from the pandemic catalyzed job reshuffling over the past three years, he said. “But that’s moved into the window of history now.”

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics bolsters Bloom’s observation: The number of people quitting their jobs fell by 49,000 in April compared to March, according to the most recent numbers available from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

In fact, the so-called “quits” rate has steadily declined since last spring and is now virtually identical (just 0.1% above) the pre-pandemic rate in February 2020. Essentially, quits are back to the 2019 pre-Covid average.

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‘Help Wanted’ signs are not being taken down just yet. The BLS shows the rate of job growth is up in the construction, manufacturing, health, education and food services industries. Despite the apparent end of the Great Resignation, the job market continues to hum along; theUS economy added 339,000 jobs in May.

But a seemingly endless parade of mass layoffs among high-profile companies has created a skittishness, particularly among white-collar workers, said Jessica Kriegel, a workplace culture expert.

Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and 3M have all significantlytrimmed staff, there have been bankruptcies among well-known companies like Bed Bath & Beyond, David’s Bridal and Tupperware, plus staff cuts at some Wall Street firms and closures at regional banks. The pace of these announcements has slowed in recent weeks, but were non-stop in December through April.

“That all plays into a fearful narrative that employees buy into. The fact that quit rates are down indicates that there’s low confidence in the job market,” Kriegel said.

And in fact, at the lower level of job, there is still significant shortages, as my attempts to work at a Starbucks in Eugene on Friday were repeatedly thwarted by none of them having enough staff to be open.

All of this is obviously multifaceted. But it’s hard not to argue that by the day, employers are regaining control over workers and the mass tech layoffs combined with the constant interest rate hikes is a good way to do it. It’s not that I think the administration can take an obvious step here, but I also don’t think they want to do that. The arm concerned about inflation and the arm concerned about workers rights are just different arms.