Winning through losing

The gubernatorial election in Virginia suggested that we would get a typical out-party run of marginal wins this cycle. Then Dobbs happened and Republicans have had few good days since:

In the 11 months since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Republicans have underperformed in federal, judicial, statewide and local elections across the country.

Why it matters: Abortion isn’t the only factor driving their election woes, especially in local races. But a toxic party brand can easily trickle down-ballot, and the GOP so far hasn’t been able to navigate the voter backlash that began with a New York special election last August.

Driving the news: Jacksonville on Tuesday elected its second Democratic mayor in 30 years, with Donna Deegan upsetting Daniel Davis — a Republican endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis — in Florida’s largest city.

• It was the first major election in Florida since DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban — which a March poll found 75% of Florida residents oppose — in a private ceremony close to midnight last month.
• In Colorado Springs, Colorado, independent businessman Yemi Mobolade was elected the first non-Republican mayor since 1979 — a “political earthquake” in a conservative stronghold, according to local media.
• In Pennsylvania, Democrats held on to their one-seat state House majority by winning a special election in the Philadelphia suburbs, allowing them to block a GOP-backed referendum on limiting abortion rights.

If Republicans can’t win in Jacksonville or Colorado Springs…

George W. Bush’s successor candidate lost, and he’s been persona non grata within the GOP ever since, despite being a figure of worship at his peak. Donald Trump just keeps losing, and he’s more beloved within the party than ever. Julia Azari argues that the key is that Trump is leading a movement more than a party per se:

The degree to which the GOP has evolved to accommodate Trump has at times been stunning; most recently, Republicans waved away a verdict that he was liable for sexual assault and a criminal indictment in New York. Many analysts have explained this through the lens of partisanship and psychology. People hate to see their team lose and will go to great lengths to justify defending it, even if it means undermining the norms and rules we all live under.

But that explanation feels incomplete, particularly when you consider that the Republican Party hasn’t exactly flourished under Trump’s leadership. The elections of 2018, 2020 and 2022 have all been disappointing for the GOP. He never commanded the majorities that Ronald Reagan or even George W. Bush did, and his brand continues to thin out Republican ranks, particularly in the suburbs. Trump’s only real success was giving his brand of politics a label that was synonymous with his name, and making everyone else in the party submit to him.

Yet Trump remains popular with Republican voters and is the clear frontrunner to win the GOP nomination in 2024. What explains this ongoing dilemma, where Republicans have been dragged down by Trump, but can’t seem to quit him?

For years, political scientists have judged presidents on their strength as party leaders — how they’ve been able to grow a coalition and cement a majority — but Trump is changing the way we think about politics.

Instead, it now seems that Trump is not so much a party leader, but a movement figure. This might seem like the kind of distinction that only academics care about. But it’s key to understanding the current state of American politics, and the dilemmas now facing GOP leaders as the MAGA movement threatens to completely overtake the Republican Party itself.

This does not seem like good news for Ronald Dion DeSantis.