Something happening in Belgorod Oblast

Belgorod is a region of Russia adjacent to Ukraine. Kharkiv is the closest Ukrainian city. The Kozinka border crossing has been attacked, and military action is moving up the road into Russia. This account is consistent with reports I am seeing on Twitter.

 The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region said on Monday that a Ukrainian ‘sabotage group’ had entered Russian territory in the Graivoron district bordering Ukraine, and was being repelled by Russian forces.

However, the Ukrainian outlet Hromadske cited Ukrainian military intelligence as saying two armed Russian opposition groups, the Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), both consisting of Russian citizens, had carried out the attack.

It’s early, so all reports should be taken with a grain of salt. If that report is right, though, it’s great strategy.

• Not a Ukrainian attack
• Distraction from Bakhmut, where Russian troops have been concentrated
• If you want to dream big, there’s a military depot further into Belgorod Oblast that may store nuclear weapons.

So it looks like the Ukrainian government may be looking toward negotiating territory for territory as a larger goal, something that hasn’t been broached in the many thinkpieces on negotiations. Or it could be a feint to test Russian reaction. It’s early yet.

Map is a screen grab from Google Maps. I always need a map. The attack is west of Kharkiv.