The preponderance of the evidence

E. Jean Carroll and two other women will testify in the battery and defamation trial against former President Donald Trump to show Trump’s pattern of alleged violent behavior, Carroll’s attorney told jurors during opening statements on Tuesday.

“Three women, one clear pattern,” attorney Shawn Crowley said. “Start with a friendly encounter in a semi-public place. All of a sudden pounce, kiss, grab, grope. Don’t wait. When you are a star, you can do anything you want. And when they speak up about what happened, attack. Humiliate them. Call them liars. Call them too ugly to assault.”

Carroll is expected to testify Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the matter. The first witness is expected to be Cheryl Beal, who worked at Bergdorf Goodman, the source said.

“You, of course, are going to hear from Ms. Carroll herself,” Crowley said. “She will testify about her traumatic encounter with Donald Trump, about her decision to stay silent so long, and about how when she finally did speak publicly, Donald Trump responded with vicious lies meant to destroy her.”

Carroll will candidly acknowledge the shame she felt about the alleged assault and her decision not to come forward sooner. “How could she tell the world that she had been dumb enough to go into a dressing room with Donald Trump,” Carroll thought to herself, according to her attorney.

At the time Carroll didn’t view Trump as dangerous, but a “character” and “a man about town,” Crowley said.

The entire mainstream American media ecosystem made the same mistake, along with tens of millions of voters.

Carroll”s claim is.of course extremely believable because, among other reasons:

(1) Donald Trump has boasted about sexually assaulting women.

(2) A very large number of women have claimed publicly that Trump has assaulted them, with one of his ex-wives being in this very non-exclusive club.

(3) Two of Carroll’s friends are going to testify that Carroll told them about the assault at the time it happened.

(4) Other witnesses will testify that Trump’s claims about not shopping at the venue where Trump raped Carroll are lies, as they personally saw him shop there.

Beyond the specific facts of this case, it’s critical to understand that the standard of proof in a civil trial is the preponderance of the evidence, which simply means that the fact finder (the jury) has to conclude that Carroll’s claims are more likely to be true than Trump’s denials. I mean do you even have to have a trial to answer that question?

Relatedly, I assume that a large percentage of Trump’s supporters understand that it’s likely Trump raped Carroll — and a bunch of other women — and just don’t care. I mean the alternative would be to conclude that they’re a bunch of credulous morons, and a recent conversation I had in a Sterling diner convinced me there’s no way that could be the case.