The latest classified document leak

There has been too much happening this week for me to do a deep dive into the latest leak, which showed up on a Discord in early March but was only noticed this week. And then another tranche of documents came out. I’m basing this mostly on the latest NYT article (gift link) and random tweets I’ve seen.

The fact that the material is a month or more old limits the damage. None of what is revealed in the documents, or at least what has been reported, seems like a big deal. Most of it has been reported qualitatively. In some cases, numbers have been attached that are pretty much what has been guessed at. I’m agreeing with Adam Silverman at Balloon Juice on this.

Here’s a sample from the Times article.

The documents portray a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. 

Yup.

The intelligence reports seem to indicate that the United States is also spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders

It is hard to believe this is a surprise to the Ukrainians.

The new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive and that the United States is able to warn its allies about Moscow’s future operations.

Which has been the case all along.

The greatest damage is likely to occur if the material allows Russia to backtrack to sources and shut them down. The fact that the material leaked is also of concern, and that source should be found as soon as possible.

The provenance of the documents is weird. Aric Toler explains in this longish thread.

Because of the way the documents showed up, one tweeter speculated that an official’s kid posted them to build his clout. Not totally unbelievable. There is a casualness in handling classified documents that needs to be ended.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner