Odds and Ends

Some stuff that’s just been sitting around in my tabs:

• Awfully interesting piece from 2018 on how the Ukrainians were mobilizing civilian drones for military use. Part and parcel of how Ukraine prepared for the resumption of hostilities in low-key ways during the interregnum between 2014 and 2022, and also how a resource-starved organization solves problems.
• Related, what the drone war over Ukraine can tell us about Taiwan’s best chances for defending itself.
• How foreign policy shapes the global film industry, with glances at China, South Korea, Israel, and Japan.
• Speaking of South Korea, Seoul is ramping up its arms export industry. I made the case in December that Korea’s arms business has a very bright future in light of Russia’s struggles and the general decay of world order, and I think that’s going to hold up. I wish the South Koreans would be more directly helpful to Ukraine, though.
• Some thoughts on sorting through intelligence terms of art, particularly useful in the past few months with respect to Covid origins and the Nordstream pipeline attack.
• Some big thoughts on the sanctions regime against Russia. Western observers were definitely way too optimistic about crushing Russia economically last year, but now I fear that the pendulum of interpretation has swung too far; Russia is suffering severe, long-term economic damage as a consequence of this war, and that suffering will increase as the war drags on. That may not matter overmuch for Putin’s decision-making, but it has a big impact on how we think of Russia’s long-term prospects.
• The Navy and the Marines are again squabbling over amphibious warships, a type which has lost some of its luster as the War on Terror has given way to Great Power Competition.