The Staring Contest

Yesterday’s election for Speaker of the House featured three factions: Most of the Republican Party voting for Kevin McCarthy; the radical Republicans voting against McCarthy, and the Democrats.

The trend does not look good for McCarthy, with the third vote going from 19 to 20 radical Republicans. This group supports the January 6 insurrection, voted against accepting the 2020 election results, and were elected by being Trumpier than Trump. They have no interest in governing, only in disruption. They want to vote to crater the world economy when Congress convenes. It’s doubtful they can be moved.

Reports from overnight suggest that McCarthy will argue that he is the Republicans’ only hope, which is probably true. That argument is unlikely to move the radicals. He can also press the possibility that without the radicals, other Republicans might defect to allow the election of a compromise candidate, who might even be a Democrat.

The Democrats have no immediate reason to do anything but vote for Hakeem Jeffries and eat their popcorn. Longer term, it is important that the US Congress become minimally functional. A good outcome would be a compromise candidate, if the Democrats can pick off enough “moderate” Republicans. Undoubtedly they are trying to do that, but what is happening now will provide fodder for the 2024 campaign, and the danger to the moderates is from the right. So allying with Democrats to vote for governance will be difficult for them.

The Democrats can wait for the Republican factions to try to stare each other down for a week or so. I don’t expect to see any big changes today.