NFL Open Thread: Sunk costs edition
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Nepo boby Nathaniel Hackett is officially one of the most disastrous hires of the post-merger era:
Less-than-one-and-done NFL head coaches since 1970:
Bobby Petrino (2007 Falcons)
Urban Meyer (2021 Jags)
Nathaniel Hackett (2022 Broncos)— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 26, 2022
Not two names you wanted to be grouped with! Although at least he didn’t resign by leaving a letter in the locker room.
Hackett, of course, is the easy problem to solve. With respect to the harder one, the Broncos will presumably remind themselves that Russell Wilson was an effective NFL QB as recently as one year ago and try this over again. But there’s a pretty good case to be made that it would be best for all involved if the Broncos sucked it up and just cut bait now:
Swallow that horse pill, Denver Broncos! Sink the Sunk Cost Fallacy at sea. Get the colonoscopy and the tax audit done on the same day. You already ditched Nathaniel Hackett. Now toss Wilson to the curb at the end of the season like a dried-out Christmas tree.
Longtime NFL analyst Gregg Rosenthal endorsed the Wilson Nuclear Option on Twitter after the Hackett dismissal. Releasing Wilson outright would be radical. On the surface, it sounds nearly impossible. Wilson would cost the Broncos a $107-million dead-cap hit in 2023 if released. That’s two years of guaranteed salary ($25 million) plus leftover prorated signing bonus ($82 million). The Broncos could spread that hit across two years, but if they are causing themselves pain in 2024 they might as well play Wilson in 2023 and try to make the best of things.
While $107 million is a LOT of dead money, the Bears and Falcons are both eating over $80 million in dead money this year. So it’s possible. Both teams were even quasi-competitive, with the Falcons starting the year 4-4. The Broncos could wipe their slate clean all at once in 2023 and start over in 2024 while not looking any worse on the field than they did in 2022. That makes at least as much sense as trying to sell a new coaching staff, the locker room, and fans on another year or two of Wilson.
Sean Payton would probably not sign up for a guaranteed rebuilding year. But Payton probably won’t sign on for “make Russ right” duty, either, especially if the Broncos trade their first-round pick (formerly the 49ers pick, so 25th or so at the highest) to claim Payton’s rights from the Saints. The Broncos should not be looking for insta-cures anyway. That’s how they got into this mess. Nope: grab Shane Steichen or DeMeco Ryans, let him spend a year installing culture/scheme/vibes, and use that late first-round pick on a building block.
Walkthrough abhors Sashi Brown/Matt Rhule five-year rebuilding nonsense but loves a smart, tidy, credit-repair season. Keeping Wilson would actually represent a long-leash kinda-sorta rebuild, with the team swapping out pieces on the fly while trying to make the most of Wilson’s Wile E. Coyote-off-a-cliff decline phase. One year in suspended animation, by contrast, would put the Broncos on much better footing to compete in 2024 and beyond.
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So cut Wilson, new Broncos owner Daddy WalmartBucks. Release veterans such as Ronald Darby and Graham Glasgow (probably gone no matter what) and Justin Simmons (great player, but not a rebuilding block) to make ends meet. Trade Jerry Jeudy to the Bears for a draft pick. Extend Courtland Sutton. Back-load a new deal for Dalton Risner and let the other free agents walk. Rent Sam Darnold for a year. Signal to the NFL world that you are doing penance, or embarking on a grand experiment, or both. Trading for Wilson took courage. Releasing him will take more. But choking down your medicine is the quickest path to a cure.
And Wilson? He’s due for a year of brooding in the Marvel supervillain farmhouse or something after this season. His story deserves a third act. But third acts typically open with a change of scenery.