NFL Open Thread: Class of 2020 Edition
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As we near the end of year 3 of the QB class of 2020, it is clear that 1)it was very good and 2)2022 has scrambled the rankings. After Year 1, Herbert was decisively top of the class. Bill Barnwell ($), re-drafting the class, would now rank Herbert fourth, behind in order Burrow, Hurts, and Tua. Burrow strikes me as a no-brainer #1 at this point, but you can make good arguments for any order after that, although Hurts has been so good this year his case to have leapfrogged Herbert for second is strong.
Like I would, Mike Tanier would still rank Herbert 3, behind Burrow and Hurts and ahead of Tua — but in a deep dive argues that there’s no question Herbert has had a disappointing season despite the mitigating factors:
Herbert ranks 20th in DYAR and 21st in DVOA. He’s in a neighborhood with freshly benched Marcus Mariota, Daniel Jones, and Andy Dalton, three other quarterbacks with shaky offensive lines and limited firepower.
Herbert is better than Mariota, Jones, or Dalton. It would be silly to suggest otherwise. But the grouping is revelatory. If Herbert is performing at a similar level to those quarterbacks under comparable circumstances, what’s the justification for moving him 10 or 15 full rungs up the ladder? Highlights? Traits? Priors? Vibes?
DYAR also tells us that Herbert had the third-greatest early career of any quarterback in the last 40 years. The preseason Herbert hype was justified. So is the hope for a long, productive future: Herbert’s 2020/2021 placed him on a list among Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, and others. But neither the encouraging past nor promising future justifies rewriting the present.
There’s a chance that Herbert is regressing, or at least stagnating: defensive pressure may be leading to suspect decisions, or his high success rate on “hero balls” is causing him to overlook some easy opportunities.
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Remember when Baker Mayfield’s only issue was a bum shoulder? Or was it a lack of weapons? Or a bad system? Baker Boosters, many of whom had plenty of GIFs and diagrams to back up their assertions, kept making excuses for Mayfield until he found himself on the waiver wire this week.
Remember when offensive genius Joe Brady was going to UNLOCK Sam Darnold’s potential? Well-informed experts believed that would happen. Folks also insisted Brady was freakin’ Einstein for designing game plans for Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson that could rock Mississippi State, but I digress.
Remember when Carson Wentz was still a great quarterback in 2019, but his receivers were just terrible? Remember when Mac Jones was basically Tom Brady Jr.?
I’m old. I remember when Mark Sanchez was The Sanchize. I was still hearing about Sam Bradford’s 2008 college scouting report in 2016. I remember the Dolphins swapping out everything in an effort to make Ryan Tannehill more than, well, Ryan Tannehill. I remember Vince Young’s rise, fall, rise, and fall. Much of it all was documented here at Walkthrough, sometimes with detailed stats and diagrams. I was on both the right and wrong sides of debates.
Herbert is better than all of the quarterbacks just mentioned; DYAR made that clear in 2020/2021. But the “argument from absence” surrounding Herbert is all-too familiar after nearly 20 years in the take-mines. Tools-‘n’-traits-based Herbert arguments have started to sound so much like mid-career Bradford and early (ultra-toolsy) Tannehill arguments that it leaves me wanting to scream “SHOW ME SOME ACTUAL RESULTS!”
The Chargers might not yet be a playoff team in Herbert’s third season? Fine.
They at least have some signature wins, right? Oh, they beat the Chiefs once last September, and the 2021 Bengals before they got hot? That’s not … nothing, I suppose.
But Herbert is taking care of business against weaker opponents, right? Oh, the Chargers lost 38-10 to the Jaguars a few months ago, with two Herbert turnovers. Well, he was playing hurt in that game, so it doesn’t count. Everything must be perfect for it to count. And there was last week’s Raiders game. And so on.
At least the Chargers are scoring lots of points. Oh, they are 14th in points per game in 2022? And 13th in yards per game? And 21st in yards per passing play? Damn that Joe Lombardi.
Still, the tape clearly shows that Herbert is better than his 2022 stats; I’m not some box-score scout or QB Winz philistine. Herbert deserves mention among the top 10 or 15 quarterbacks in the league. What? That’s not enough? You want to place him above Burrow and Hurts, who are actually winning games and have led their team to the playoffs? You want to have Herbert-Mahomes debates?
Sigh.
Justin Herbert has the traits of an outstanding quarterback. Justin Herbert may be developing into an outstanding quarterback. Yet Justin Herbert is not yet an outstanding quarterback.
I think you would be pretty happy going into next year with any of Burrow/Hurts/Herbert, and despite his arm strength limitations Tua is having the best season of any of them pass-for-pass. But at some point the Chargers have to put up or shut up. The Sunday night game should be fun.