NFL Open Thread: GROUND AND POUND edition
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One of the oldest and most important findings of analytics in football is that the efficiency of a team’s passing game and defense are much more important than the efficiency of its run pass and defense. The behavior of NFL teams generally reflects the acceptance of this insight. We may be reaching the point, however, when the equilibrium has reached the point that teams can get more leverage from a good rushing attack than they generally have been able to since the 1978 rule changes:
N.F.L. offenses used to be pass-happy. They later became pass-giddy and eventually pass-post-dental-surgery-loopy.
After decades of ever-increasing neglect, however, the running game is finally making a comeback.
Through Week 10, N.F.L. teams average 121.8 rushing yards per game, the highest figure since 1987. Teams also average 4.5 yards per rush, the highest rate in history.
Teams rush 26.8 times per game, a rate that has been relatively steady for many years, but pass attempts have declined to 33.7 per game, the lowest figure since 2010. That means the league’s run-to-pass ratio has increased slightly over the last two years, from 41.9 percent in 2020 to 42.1 in 2021 to 42.7 this year.
The change may not be dramatic, but teams are running more frequently and enjoying more success as a result in 2022, bucking a trend toward increased passing that began when the league adopted pass friendly rule changes in 1978.
The revitalization of the running game is most noticeable at the top of the league standings. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-1), with an option-heavy offense, average 142.7 rushing yards per game. The Baltimore Ravens (6-3) average 168.1 rushing yards per game thanks to quarterback Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat capabilities. The Tennessee Titans (7-2), averaging 133.4 rushing yards per game, hop into a wagon most weeks and let Derrick Henry drag them to victory.
The Giants (7-2; 164.8 rushing yards per game) would practically be a volleyball team without Saquon Barkley at tailback. The Minnesota Vikings (8-1) average a modest 107 rushing yards per game, but they often line up with a halfback AND a fullback, the way the founding fathers intended.
To be clear, none of the teams above — division leaders save for the second-place Giants — have high rushing totals simply because they are protecting late leads. Instead, they feature offenses that are “balanced” or “establish the run” in ways that coaches have paid lip service to for decades before inevitably donning their headsets and calling two passes for every handoff.
The passing game has had much greater impact in part because of tactical and strategic choices made by defenses, but we may have reached the point where defenses are selling out to stop the pass to the extent that the running game has increased in potential value. That’s not to say as important, or anything close to that — even in the 70s dead ball era passing efficiency was more important. But having a quality run game probably means more than it did 10 years ago, and good organizations seem to reflect that.