Has the Shit Hit the Fan?

As Paul noted, it appears that a Russian missile has landed in Poland and killed at least two people.

As world leaders discussed the possibilities for a path to peace in Ukraine at the G-20 summit in Indonesia on Tuesday, Russia bombarded Ukraine with missiles — one of the most extensive such barrages of the conflict, striking targets across the country, including energy infrastructure and apartment blocks.

At least one missile hit the town of Przewodow in Poland, just over the border from Ukraine, killing two people, a Polish official said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive national security matter. The official did not say whether the missile had been fired by Russia. Even if inadvertent, a strike on the territory of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally could be a pivotal moment in the conflict. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called an emergency meeting of the country’s national defense and security council Tuesday night in response to the incident.

Some quick thoughts:

1. The Russians have yet to acknowledge the strike, but it shouldn’t be difficult for the Poles to determine conclusively that a) there was damage, and b) the damage was caused by Russian equipment. The fact that the Russians launched a major barrage this evening will also make it difficult to deny responsibility.
2. I strongly suspect that the strike is accidental, but it would be wrong to assume it’s an accident. If we discover that the target was involved in the transfer of equipment to Ukraine, all bets are off.
3. It is very possible that the Poles are going to go ballistic (so to speak) on this; for the time being the position that Washington, London, Ottawa, Paris et al should take is cautious support.
4. Offering to increase Poland’s anti-ballistic missile defenses is the obvious turn, but there’s some peril; Russia has been extremely sensitive to the deployment of ABM capable systems in Poland over the past fifteen years.
5. I cannot imagine that the Ukrainians are unhappy about this. Indeed, I wonder whether the Russians will try to pass this off (intentional or accidental) onto Kyiv.

*Much* remains uncertain and so take great care with this news.

In other news I have a short piece at 1945 on Russia’s terror bombing campaign. One of the things I don’t mention is the escalation concerns associated with missiles falling in the wrong place.

Russia has largely avoided using expensive fixed-wing aircraft to attack well-defended Ukrainian strategic targets. Rather, the Russian campaign has mostly used cruise missiles and long-range drones to target Ukrainian infrastructure. These drones and missiles are accurate enough to hit small targets, and appear to have caused extensive damage. The acquisition of additional ballistic missiles (and the retooling of Russian industry to produce drones) means that Russia will continue to be able to destroy targets deep in Ukrainian territory.