The crazification factor in Michigan and Georgia
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I’m intrigued by the contrast between the races for Michigan’s governorship and Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat.
It’s an interesting natural experiment, featuring:
(1) Two states that are both very closely divided between Democratic and Republican voters. (Biden won each by a small margin).
(2) A Democratic candidate that looks like a normal competent politician versus a ridiculous joke of a MAGA Republican candidate. (To be fair, Tudor Dixon, while a completely absurd figure, at least by the standards of the Before Time, looks like Maggie Thatcher compared to shambling cautionary CTE tale and racist caricature Herschel Walker).
(3) Two white women facing off in the Michigan race; two Black men competing in Georgia. So we’re controlling for some crucial demographic factors.
The big contrast here is that the polls — which to the extent they’re distorted by trolling the libs factors etc. among respondents would be expected to be distorted in similar ways in both states — show Whitmer blowing out Tudor in a totally non-competitive race, while the contest between Warnock and Walker looks like a tossup.
This would seem to suggest that the size of the potential MAGA electorate in Michigan is much more fluid than it is in Georgia, i.e., the crazification factor in the two states is quite different. The mind boggles at the idea that anybody could vote for someone like Herschel Walker for the U.S. Senate, but apparently essentially all of Georgia’s GOP voters don’t see it that way. (I wonder what role Walker’s status as a college football hero — college football is a gigantic deal in Georgia — is playing here?). Meanwhile, a big portion of Michigan’s Republican voters aren’t going to vote for Tudor, even though Whitmer has become a fetishistic hate object for the MAGA hordes.
Dixon’s campaign seems to be spending very little money just a month before the election, which makes me suspect the whole thing is just a typical MAGA grift; but of course Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign was nothing but that and look what happened.
Anyway, I invite you to go on a Cletus safari without leaving the comfort of wherever you are now: