The Offensives in the Donbas

It looks as if the Russian offensive to seal off the Donbas has begun. This includes attacks into the big Ukrainian salient and also a barrage of cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities across the country. For their part the Ukrainians appear to have launched a counter-offensive that may see some success in unbalancing the Russian attack. The general Russia offensive seems to be better resourced than the attacks that were launched at the beginning of the war, and Russian forces seem to be operating with a greater degree of central direction. Still, given the losses that the Russians have already incurred it would be wrong to assume that Russian victory is a done deal. I would also strongly caution against the assumption that Russia is aiming for May 9 as the end of major offensive operations; if Russia remains in an unsuitable situation at that point, offensive action will continue.

Some links:

• A couple of Patterson students spoke with Amy McGrath about airpower over Ukraine, including NFZs and the all important question of how long it takes to train (and retrain) a fighter pilot.
• Russia making the occupation of southern Ukraine look permanent.
• On creating “statelets” designed to permanently destabilize a target country, while not at all helping the people who actually live in the statelets.
• Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol hangs on but it’s only a matter of time.
• Are tanks done? I very much doubt it…
• As Dan Drezner puts it, both Russia and Ukraine still have a “theory of victory,” so fighting is likely to continue for some time.