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Deterrence Works Only If One Deters

On April 20, 2022

At 7:04 pm

In General

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A few hours after I posted “Deconstructing Deterrence,” this exchange occurred on Twitter.

I'm not sure I follow. I don't think there's a credible possibility that the US, UK or France would use nuclear weapons in response to Russian tac nuke use in Ukr. Doesn't mean it's likely, but it does mean Russia's restraint won't directly be driven by deterrence considerations— Ian J. Stewart (@ian_j_stewart) April 20, 2022

Your reply is circular. Deterrence only works if one deters. I am pointing out that deterrence is necessary. And if there were these statements that would deter. Naturally, if all said they would not use nukes if Russia did on Ukraine, then there would be no deterrence. Not good.— Dr John Chipman IISS (@chipmanj) April 20, 2022

This is precisely the kind of thing my post is aimed at. By valorizing the abstraction “deterrence” and assuming that both sides view the actions similarly in the sequence I described

Actor One considers taking an action that may be a threat to Actor Two
Actor Two takes an action to demotivate Actor One from that action
Actor One does not take that action.

one may manage to accuse another of circular reasoning while saying “Deterrence works only if one deters.”

What Chipman is describing is an escalation of threats, not unlike the famous game of chicken, in which the “winning” move is to throw the steering wheel out the window.

We can’t continue to do this.