Russia-Ukraine Update

We’re seeing urban fighting in at least four cities (Mariupol, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, and Kharkiv) with periodic use of artillery. The effort to encircle Kyiv seems to have turned into a complete mess; the “column” to the north is now a traffic jam full of broken and blasted vehicles with no useful tires. The Russian advance in the south is genuinely disconcerting and could unbalance efforts to protect the cities in the north:

The Ukrainian government has determined that Kyiv and NATO are its centers of gravity. The defense of Kyiv, coupled with the information offensive we’ve seen over the past week, are tied closely together. I do not see how Kyiv falls without a lengthy and extremely destructive siege, and honestly I’m not sure how much more the Russian army has in the tank. But it’s hard to imagine the Russians giving back what they’ve taken in the south.

• Global impact of the war has been to increase grain and energy prices…
• Results from a wargame run shortly before the conflict began largely track what’s happened thus far, apart from the air war.
• Some thoughts on the utility of foreign fighters and of their legality.
• More on the financial war.

And in other news I update my answer to the question “are we gonna have World War III?”

Since tensions between Kyiv and Moscow started to rise, people have wondered whether the conflict could escalate to a general fight between Russia and NATO.  Ukraine is not part of NATO and the military alliance is not obligated to come to its defense. In accord with leaders of most of the largest NATO allies, President Biden has made clear that he sees no circumstances in which US troops would find themselves fighting on Ukrainian soil. Leaders are clearly sensitive to the danger of World War III and keen to avoid it.

And yet while accidental wars are rare, they do happen.