Latest on Russia-Ukraine…
By 
Mariupol is under siege, but in a week this very well could by Kyiv:
Marina Levinchuk said she received an alarming text message from the local authorities in the besieged city of Mariupol several days ago, before she decided to flee. “If somebody dies in your family,” she said, recalling the message in her own words, “just put the body outside, cover it, tie up the hands and the legs and leave it outside.”
“That’s what’s going on in Mariupol now,” she said of the city, currently ringed by Russian forces pounding it with bombs, missiles and artillery. “There are just bodies lying in the streets.”
“There is no water, no heating, no gas,” Ms. Levinchuk, 28, who made it safely to a city in western Ukraine after 30 hours of driving, said in a video call on Wednesday. “And they are collecting snow, melting the snow and boiling the snow.”
Some links:
- I think David Lake probably has the right answer to the question “how long will the sanctions hold,” which is “until Russia is broken.” The problem for Russia is that it’s arguably in a worse position even than in 1945, where at least it could loot the wreckage of the German economy.
- A look from Dmitry Gorenburg at the prospects of spillover conflicts in the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Baltics.
- The cyber-dog has not yet quite barked with respect to Ukraine-Russia…
- The Biden administration is not yet supplying Ukraine with real-time intelligence. There are concerns over escalation, and it’s nice to have something in the back pocket. It’s worth noting, though, that the supply of intel could rapidly increase the lethality of Ukrainian forces, especially heavy artillery.
- Tooze on Specter on Mearsheimer on Putin is quite the read…
My latest at 1945 takes a look at the prospects for German re-armament.
The first increases in spending should go to resolving long-term readiness problems in the Bundeswehr ground and air forces. Indeed, while some of the increases may support Germany’s navy, we would expect the bulk of German rearmament funds to flow into ground and air forces. Germany certainly has the defense industrial base (DIB) to make rearmament happen, and indeed to become the driver of defense investment across the region.
A piece on the same topic is also available at War on the Rocks.