Latest on Russia-Ukraine
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Not a lot has changed since yesterday; the biggest story might be that the Polish MiGs to Ukraine plan is still somehow alive:
The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.
At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.
The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.
Managing this will be very complex; Poland legit wants some replacement fighters right away, and legit thinks it’s gonna need them because there’s a war right next door. How fast the US can a) rejuvenate some retired aircraft and b) get Polish pilots checked out in them is an open question. Moreover, the Polish MiGs have different equipment than Ukrainian MiGs, meaning that Ukrainian pilots will also require training. Even getting the aircraft to Ukraine is fraught, because they become combat sorties as soon as they cross into Ukrainian airspace, and it’s legally pretty sketchy to launch a combat sortie from an airbase in Poland or Germany. Might be best just to truck them across the border.
Some links:
- Nice CNAS explainer on export controls and how they matter for Russia.
- More TB2s on the way…
- McDonalds has shut down in Russia.
- Seizing Russian stuff at sea is actually legally kind of questionable.
- If it’s a war, Russia has to bring an armored train.
A lot of what you think is going to happen in this war depends on which analogy you wish to believe. The Winter War analogy is attractive for how it starts, but of course it didn’t end well…
However, the conflict is interesting in the context of the performance of the Russian army. The Red Army began the Winter War disastrously, advancing with poor morale and poor training against an opponent far more enthusiastic and skilled than the Soviets had anticipated. Having been handed a devastating series of defeats, the Soviets picked themselves up, re-organized their forces, and committed to pressing forward. Russia was willing to pay huge costs for the relatively minor territories it won and began to reorganize its armed forces along the way. The Ukrainians have not handed Russia a defeat on this scale, but we still may see significant changes in how the Russian military operates over the next weeks and months.