Russia Update
By 
Dan Lamothe is one of the people I’m following most closely:
Also Michael Kofman
And Rob Lee:
The Kremlin said that Russian forces were resuming their advance on Ukraine on Saturday, claiming that President Vladimir V. Putin had ordered a pause on Friday while possible talks with Ukraine were being considered. Russia has established attack lines into three cities: Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the south.
It is difficult to take a city where the political leadership remains intact and the city does not wish to be taken. It may be the case that Kiev falls rapidly once the Russians are fully in position but I continue to have doubts. I also do not understand how Russia has failed to destroy the much smaller and less capable Ukrainian air forces; reports of shootdowns of Russian cargo aircraft seem to be well-sourced.
Some other links:
- Dmitry Gorenburg on Russian media prior to the invasion.
- The norms that Putin is shredding.
- Implications of the attack for international law.
- US diplomatic outreach to India and the Middle East hasn’t paid off thus far.
- Contextualizing Russian attitudes towards Ukraine.
Finally, I have some thoughts on the domestic politics of all this:
Thus, it shouldn’t be surprising that ideological and interest-based lenses affect how we think about international affairs. With respect to the war between Russia and Ukraine, American political groups on the right and on the far left have expressed a degree of affinity for Russia, if not outright support. A former President of the United States has expressed personal admiration for Vladimir Putin that is, under the most generous interpretation, unseemly. While leftist support for Russia has mostly been limited to the fringe, conservative support has not; admiration for conservative, patriarchal, anti-gay and illiberal regimes such as Hungary has in many cases naturally extended to Russia. This is perhaps unsurprising given Russia’s strong support for transnational right wing political networks, as well as Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.