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How To Respond To The Russian Buildup?

On November 22, 2021

At 11:42 am

In General

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Over the weekend, Samuel Charap, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, published his thoughts on the situation in Ukraine. Russia has been building up troops along the Ukraine border and making threatening noises. Dan Nexon outlined the situation.

Part of Charap’s argument is that the United States should pressure Ukraine to fulfill its commitments to the Minsk Accord, which slowed down military action in the eastern part of Ukraine but is unfavorable to Ukraine. That provoked heated argument from analysts of Russia.

I’ll post some of the better arguments here and leave my analysis for a later post. They are mostly Twitter threads, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see them expanded into articles. Sadly, some of the discussion has degenerated to “You’re being paid by Putin” and similar accusations. I won’t include that.

A key contradiction in much analysis of the Putin regime's actions is the dual claim that Putin does not want war but also does not want to be seen to be bluffing. If the former matters more than the latter then Kyiv rides this out and Putin looks like all he can do is bluff— Alexander Clarkson (@APHClarkson) November 20, 2021

https://twitter.com/OlyaOliker/status/1462058325739253763

So @scharap has laid out the bitter truth here, and few are going to be willing to stomach it. The US approach is not working, and it’s time to admit it. However, I’m also skeptical that forcing Minsk on Ukraine will work either. https://t.co/G3vxDpm8ea— Anna Arutunyan (@scrawnya) November 20, 2021

A thought-provoking article by @scharap, where he argues the US should arm-twist Ukraine to meet Russia's demands on Donbas: https://t.co/Vg3OAJTVGV. I see it has triggered an interesting debate among experts. My take is as follows: 👇🏿— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) November 20, 2021

Good thread. I agree that an attack is a real risk – that’s clear from Russian officials making analogies with 2008. But it will not going to happen, unless something along the lines of Tskhinvali shelling happens. Which hopefully is not on the cards, so the risk is low. (1) https://t.co/bD9Wt0b87m— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) November 22, 2021

Dialog between Stephen Pifer, former ambassador to Ukraine, and Charap starts here;

Agree desirable to avoid major war in Europe. But to do so at any cost?

While Putin may do something stupid, perhaps not. Potential costs to #Russia are big & real (sanctions & dead soldiers).#Ukraine gets a vote. USG should not press Kyiv to accept Minsk II on Russia’s terms. https://t.co/4plkwnymmI— Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) November 22, 2021

Good thread. I agree that an attack is a real risk – that’s clear from Russian officials making analogies with 2008. But it will not going to happen, unless something along the lines of Tskhinvali shelling happens. Which hopefully is not on the cards, so the risk is low. (1) https://t.co/bD9Wt0b87m— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) November 22, 2021

Those who are convinced that Russia either is or is not going to mount an all-out invasion of Ukraine are ignoring the possibility that Putin has given himself multiple options and is waiting to see (based on int'l reactions) which of those options would be most beneficial.— Gennady Rudkevich (@grudkev) November 22, 2021

A Russian commentator is warning the US from military support for Ukraine (in parallel to the military build-up); presenting Russia as the victim of Western aggression. The unspoken premise is that Ukraine has no right to independence and territorial integrity. https://t.co/mLEo9UA3Li— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) November 22, 2021

Michael Kofman is an expert on the Russian military who is worth following. He posted numerous comments through the weekend.

Charap’s overall response –

So since I've garnered a number of new followers this weekend, I thought I'd follow up on the substance of the discussion around my @POLITICOMag article. A thread.https://t.co/S31Z5KdAZL— Samuel Charap (@scharap) November 21, 2021

Cross-posted at Nuclear Diner