Play the Cold War Hits!

The New Cold War is just warmed over Old Cold War:

Now, a new wargame from the Center for New American Security examines what might happen if China seized one of Taiwan’s outlying islands today. Instead of Quemoy and Matsu, the game simulated an attack on the Pratas/Dongsha Islands, an atoll in the South China Sea to the south and west of Formosa. The massive expansion of China’s air and sea power has made such an operation feasible. In the game, Chinese naval forces seize the island and force the surrender of its 500 man garrison, presenting Taipei and Washington with a fait accompli.

I’m being a little bit flip regarding the Quemoy-Matsu comparison, but the wargame itself is remarkably plausible; the seizure of one of these small islands would really put the US and Taiwan in a pickle. Nobody wants war and deterrence is a way to avoid war, but extending deterrence to sand piles strains credulity. The legal and diplomatic situation also favors China in this situation.