Republicans threaten to enact only item on their legislative agenda again

The Republican conference is issuing a DIRE WARNING to Democrats about the consequences if they raise taxes:

Democrats are proposing to raise taxes on the rich to fund infrastructure and an array of new social spending. But Republicans, reports Sahil Kapur, “are sending a pointed warning to congressional Democrats: If you raise taxes on corporations and top earners, we’ll just cut them back when we regain power.”

Oh no! Not that!

While this statement is a highly accurate prediction, it’s an extremely feeble threat. Republicans are going to cut taxes for rich people the next time they hold power, regardless of what Democrats do. Over the last three decades, Republicans have made clear that they believe the perfect response to a slowing economy, a rapidly growing economy, a budget deficit, a budget surplus, war, peace, high inflation, low inflation, or deadly pandemic is to give rich people a nice big tax cut. It’s their religion.

So, yes, if Democrats raise taxes on the rich, then Republicans will cut taxes for the rich next time they gain power. For any X, the statement, “If X, then Republicans will cut taxes for the rich next time they gain power” is true.

Leaving aside the fact that the next Republican trifecta will pass an upper-class tax cut no matter what Democrats do, upper-class tax cuts are incredibly unpopular even by the standards of Republican policy preferences, while raising taxes on rich is very popular. It’s hard to imagine an emptier threat.

There is, however, a lesson here: namely, 1)tax increases should not be seen as a major get in negotiations with Republicans, and especially 2)“grand bargains” with Republicans over the deficit that trade tax increases for spending cuts are incredibly stupid since Republicans don’t care about deficits at all and will just pass debt-funded tax cuts as soon as they get power. Democrats should raise taxes on the rich if they want since it’s popular, but what Republicans will do should have nothing to do with it. Fortunately, most Democratic elites seem finally to have figured this out.