Super Bowl Open Thread
By 
Our podcast here. Previews from Schatz and Tanier. Barnwell, alas, has been shifted by ESPN from “Ponce de Leon couldn’t find his column three hours after it goes up” to “actually behind a paywall,” but it’s here if you subscribe to ESPN+.
A lot of late money from sharps came in on the Bucs two weeks ago, and it might happen again. If anything, the Bucs look like slight favorites on paper, making both the points and moneyline appealing. But as Schatz says, while DVOA identifying the Bucs as an excellent team even when they were just 7-5 shows the value of good analytic models, DVOA modestly downgrading the Chiefs because they let a lot of teams hang around after running up leads shows its limitations. I’m with him in assuming that Kansas City let up on teams in the regular season and made multiple games look a lot closer than they were, and this won’t happen in the postseason. If I lived in a jurisdiction where it was legal I’d lay the 3 points and take Kansas City.