What’s Next?

Well, there are armed militia fanatics outside the Kentucky State Capitol:

Days after a mob of pro-Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol, dozens of heavily armed people gathered outside the Kentucky Capitol building Saturday to rail against socialism, communism, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell and Gov. Andy Beshear.

Several members of the Kentucky State Police looked on as members of the group, composed of people from self-described “militias,” made speeches interspersed with live performances of country songs. Some in the crowd held flags or wore hats supporting President Donald Trump.

The Washington Post has an excellent timeline of the events of January 6, including attacks on state capitols. Much of the (criminal) investigation over the next weeks will involve tracing the connections between the various mobs and the White House; it is not at all absurd to suspect that there was coordination happening within Trump’s inner clique.

With regard to next steps… in the cold light of morning, it’s becoming apparent that impeachment and conviction is unlikely. The House will probably file an article of impeachment this week, but this largely serves as a threat in case Trump engages in even more egregious behavior before the 20th. It does not seem likely that the Senate will vote to convict, even after Trump leaves office. As with last time, the “make them stand up and defend Trump” argument runs aground on the fact that Republican Senators are more sensibly concerned about their own primary voters than about their general election prospects. Impeachment itself is still important, as is the threat of the 25th amendment, because Trump can still cause lots of damage in the next nine days, but we shouldn’t get our hopes up. The criminal justice system is another question altogether, and although Paul is better qualified than I to assess, it does seem that there will be copious grounds for criminal investigations into the actions of Trump and other members of his administration.