Early voting totals continue to be off the charts

As of this morning nearly 90 million early votes have been reported by states (the real number is higher because of reporting lag times, ballots in the mail that haven’t arrived yet etc.)

Some of the individual state level numbers are even more eye-popping:

Total early votes as of 10/30 as a percentage of total votes cast in 2016 election:

Florida: 86.6

North Carolina: 91.1

Georgia: 93.2

Texas: 107.7[!!]

Extraordinarily high turnout is good for Democrats, because that kind of turnout is made more unlikely by Republican voter suppression efforts, which are if anything backfiring, because they’ve been so blatant and shameless.

For example, nearly 9.7 million people voted early in Texas (early voting there ended yesterday). Texas has very restrictive mail-in voting rules, so 85% of that total was made up of in-person voting. It now seems probable that something more than 12 million people will vote in Texas, compared to 8.9 million in 2012, which certainly seems like good news for John McCain Joe Biden, especially since it looks like more than two million votes are likely to come out of Harris County alone.

Look, I get that analysts are naturally gun shy after 2016, but this is shaping up as a blowout, despite all the GOP attempted vote suppression and outright judicial theft at the margins. People talk about polling errors but:

(1) Biden’s path to victory is outside the MOE and has been for the entire fall — the race has barely budged per the polls.

(2) People seem to forget that polling errors can go either way: the polls understated Obama’s eventual performance in 2012, especially across the Great Lakes region, and I think that kind of error is if anything more likely than a 2016 type error this time around, because of natural over-correction on the part of pollsters.

And before you get to that this post isn’t going to cause a single person who would vote for Biden from not voting because of complacency because come on.

Prediction: Florida and/or North Carolina will be called for Biden early Tuesday night, and it will immediately turn out that no Republican who appears on cable news TV regularly will have ever actually supported Donald Trump, except for Glenn Greenwald of course.