Premature lifting of stay-home orders will not actually stop the economy from cratering

Whatever the formal pronouncements governors (or authoritarian Attorneys General) make, the fact remains that relatively few people are actually willing to risk choking to death alone to marginally help Donald Trump’s re-election chances:

This week, governors in states like Florida and Georgia are moving to reopen bowling alleys, nail salons, and dine-in restaurants in an effort to get economic life moving again. And an organized campaign by conservative economic interests is underway to lift restrictions faster in more places.

This will be an experiment, of course, but the best available evidence casts doubt on the idea that enough customers will return to make it possible for small businesses to stay viable without additional government assistance.

For example, we know customers began abandoning America’s restaurants before they were ordered closed, that the handful of states that have avoided broad lockdown orders are still feeling economic pain, and that huge swaths of the economy that have not been shut down are nonetheless experiencing a precipitous decline in sales.

The problem is a question of fear. Americans fear spreading or contracting infection, so much so that they’ve overwhelmingly participated in social distancing measures. They tell pollsters by wide margins that they fear lifting those restrictions too soon much more so than too late. They’re willing to stay put even if it harms the economy.

They also fear economic hardship. That’s led prudent people, even those left relatively unharmed by the downturn so far, to delay nonessential purchases, like new cars, appliances, clothes, and other goods.

There’s lots of data presented here. Restaurant bookings, hotel stays, etc. were all in free fall prior to formal closure orders. Nobody is flying even though air travel hasn’t been shut down, very few people are buying new cars even though auto dealerships are generally open.

The fundamental problem here is that the crackpots who control the United States Senate just don’t want to take the measures that are necessary to stop mass unemployment and a catastrophic depression from happening for idiotic ideological reasons that are contrary to their political self-interest (as well as public health, although they could give a shit about the latter.) So they and their allies in various statehouses will pretend that people are willing to die to be able to shop at Bass Pro Shops in person. But they’re wrong. The problem is that letting the few people who are willing to take the risk do it can make public health outcomes worse even if they can’t materially improve the economy.