For You Horse Racing Fans

This 538 feature is pretty cool if you’re into that sort of thing. The bottom line conclusions aren’t that different than what an eyeballing of the polling averages would suggest: Biden is a clear but vulnerable frontunner, Bernie is the most likely person to win if he doesn’t, and Warren and Buttigeig have enough support that they can’t be written off entirely. But the ability to plug in different early-state scenarios is kind of interesting to see how things might play out.