Hanoi Fallout

So, something happened yesterday in Hanoi…

Within hours of an abruptly canceled lunch and a failed summit, desperate efforts were launched to rebuild a dialogue between the United States and North Korea.

But as the dust settled, it was increasingly clear that a huge gap remains between the two sides and that a clear North Korean commitment to surrender its nuclear weapons remains as elusive as ever.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un began the talks on Thursday morning claiming he was willing to denuclearize, but by Thursday afternoon Trump was forced to admit that after a year of engagement with Kim, two summits with the United States and three with South Korea, there was still no agreement on what denuclearization means.

“He has a certain vision,” Trump said. “It’s not exactly our vision, but it’s a lot closer than it was a year ago.”

Long story short:

• Nuclear arms control is hard, and the months of hard work that were supposed to lay the foundation for a successful negotiation did not sufficiently close the gap such that it could be bridged during the summit.
• By most accounts North Korea has continued to increase the size and sophistication of its nuclear arsenal during the period of negotiations.
• North Korea and the United States continue to disagree about the terms of agreement, and in particular the United States was unwilling to extend the degree of sanctions relief that North Korea wanted in return for shuttering the Yongbyon reactor.
• Trump’s language at the summit does not suggest that he intends to return to a confrontational posture against Pyongyang.  But of course it’s hard to say.
• Even if we grant that North Korea is a nuclear state, there are lots of points that require further negotiation before full sanctions relief.  These include verification procedures regarding further production and modernization, agreements on the nature and extent of the DPRK’s ballistic missile program, and mechanisms to prevent the proliferation of nuclear and ballistic missile technology.  Given that it seems that North Korea was unwilling to budge on most of these points, Trump was right to back away from a more expansive deal.
• We are still at a more advanced base camp than we were in the middle of 2017, or the end of 2016.  But it wouldn’t be surprising if this administration coughed up the progress made thus far.