NFL Divisional Round Open Thread

ATLANTA (-6) over Seattle Seahawks fans obviously can’t really complain about much in the Pete Carroll era; getting beaten up in the divisional round still puts you in the upper-middle class of NFL teams. (NOTE: offer void in Texas and Indiana.) And it’s not like the window is permanently slammed shut — the organization has the QB/coach/GM trinity you need to be successful. But today…lesse, and already somewhat declining defense without its most vital player going up against one of the best offenses in NFL history? With the QB far from 100% and missing his #2 receiver, playing behind an offensive line consisting of a college safety, Paul Allen’s most expendable bouncer, and three paper mache pylons? On the road? And Wade Phillips just took over the pass rush Tom Cable couldn’t figure out how to stop when it was being coached by Jeff Fisher and Greggggg Williams? [Dog in burning house “Everything Is Fine” gif]

TEAM TRUMP (-16) over Houston Would Houston beating New England be the biggest upset in NFL playoff history? It would certainly be up there. The famous Beast Quake game in 2011 involved the #19 team in DVOA beating #2, plus the former was at home. This involves #29 on the road against #1. The one negative I can mention about the Pats is that despite the points allowed junk stat, the New England defense is mediocre and has looked superficially better than that only because of favorable field position and a tomato can schedule. You know who’s not well-positioned to take advantage of that? Brock Osweiler and QB GURU Bill O’Brien. (Belichick must be almost as excited about going up against his coaching tree in the playoffs as he is about Inauguration Day.) Let’s just say I don’t expect to have to DVR the Flames/Here Have Yet Another #1 Overall Picks game that starts at 10.

Green Bay (+4 1/2) over Dallas: Now this is more like it — #7 DVOA and going up on the road against #2. The Cowboys are the slightly discounted version of the Pats — an offensive machine only a little bit less efficient than the Falcons and Trumps, and defensively — well, Rod Marinelli has done a hell of a job getting mediocre performance out of mostly replacement-level talent. Green Bay are in the same basic mold but, in 2016, not quite as good on either said of the ball. Having said that, and acknowledging that Nelson is a major loss, the Packers are getting more than a field goal in what looks like a last-team-with-the-ball wins shootout, and Rodgers has a much longer track record of elite performance than Prescott.

KANSAS CITY (-1) over Pittsburgh This game is an object lesson in why I make football picks on a lightly read political blog rather than betting actual money on them. The #5 DVOA team on the road against #6 — doesn’t get much tighter than that. One interesting thing about this matchup is that while the ultimate results were very similar the paths are very different — the Steelers have a higher ceiling but are more erratic, the Chiefs are more consistent but Captain Checkdown and their bend-but-don’t-break defense won’t beat the Steelers if they play as well as they’re capable of playing. Which Steelers team will we get? Beats me, but I’ll put my non-money on Andy Reid off a bye week at Arrowhead. Slow-but-steady will get to run an 8-minute 4th quarter drive down 10 at Foxboro next week.