The LGM 2016 Presidential Election Contest predictions

In regard to the LGM presidential election contest, the prospect of acquiring wealth uncountable $100 in return for a quick back of the cyber-envelope calculation proved to be a powerful lure to our dedicated and knowledgeable readership. No less than 118 commenters and lurkers came forth, and the results are below.

Summary: All 118 participants predicted that Hillary Clinton would win both the popular vote and the Electoral College tally. 64 of 118 (54.2%) predicted that Clinton would win by ten or more percentage points (This hasn’t happened in a presidential election since 1984).

Participants varied greatly in their estimates of how many votes third party candidates were going to get, with a (to me) surprising number predicting that more than 10% of the vote would go to someone other than Clinton or Trump.

Predicted total percent of popular vote

Clinton Trump

Mike in DC 54.46 36.81

Erik F 51.90 43.80

Gregor Sansa 51.23 45.43

Dan S. 58.77 40.14

JonH11 51.1 42.67

West 49.93 22.36

Steven C. 51.03 46.71

Turner 49.69 43.50

Tom D 49.76 45.67

IB 48.53 42.64

Catbirdman 57.22 46.66

Peterr 59.37 32.85

Billcoop4 47.69 37.55

Zach 52.08 40.92

MPAVictoria 52.29 44.61

Chicken Dinner 52.66 45.37

Ray C. 61.88 29.25

Jeer 57.29 41.38

Jdd_stl 53.32 36.08

Gwen 51.73 40.68

Brian K 53.02 43.98

Downpuppy 51.23 45.27

Josh N 52.75 39.55

Martin 53.48 40.93

EC Mix 49.99 35.00

Scott N 51.42 42.71

Duncan S 54.1 43.80

Kellen 49.62 42.59

Lauren 51.35 42.85

Peter B 51.85 45.01

KG 50.68 44.29

Joel M 53.48 43.57

Kevin W 52.1 42.54

Paul K 48.88 44.12

William F 49.55 45.45

Tucker 63.72 31.35

Ahenobarbus 51.75 45.50

Fenlon 50.85 41.35

Jason A 50.93 38.21

Joe Cl 55.43 39.13

Chris C 54.3 39.6

Mark L 53.47 44.03

Jay C 49.35 42.55

Bruce 50.78 39.13

Jeff A 47.47 42.93

Steven S 66.88 31.03

Thomas W 47.83 41.21

Andrew M 52.34 29.81

Jeffery K 47.86 43.17

Jeremy S 49.26 41.78

Fraud Guy 45.84 32.15

Ed F 53.27 41.78

Tofubo 54.32 34.29

Larry B 70.00 30.00

Adam B 50.22 46.68

Karl E 55.21 38.92

Jordan 48.93 46.24

John F 51.65 44.25

MacK 51.14 40.12

Jed B 50.9 42.87

Dario H 52.35 46.05

Bruce S. 53.75 36.15

Turangalila 51.06 39.63

Oliver T 52.13 36.58

Liz R 49.32 44.46

Joel P 57.31 41.10

Pinko P 53.23 41.39

Abe Z 57.38 39.88

Bill O 53.65 41.35

Clete R 51.70 40.60

Mordechai 52.45 41.27

Pirate Dan 54.31 37.83

William Mill 52.43 41.64

Michael G 53.29 31.27

Spencer F 53.65 39.73

Eric K 54.67 38.56

Mark J 61.15 29.34

Arin 51.24 44.73

Richard O 51.18 ` 38.35

Mitch T 53.20 43.80

Kag 48.85 46.25

Joe Mar 46.45 38.95

Randy Khan 57.46 34.58

David P 54.17 39.69

Allan C 54.68 42.72

Timo 47.21 41.31

Option 49.05 41.75

Adam R 51.79 43.43

Erin B 49.64 31.27

R. Porrofato 50.1 43.30

Wengler 49.83 43.37

Jewish Steel 52.00 38.00

David Fr 55.55 43.21

Brian Jen 54.40 42.01

Rob in CT 52.25 43.00

Jill L 57.18 42.82

Peggy S 49.56 40.05

Peter Sl 50.77 44.53

David Sp 50.50 45.00

William A 57.02 42.01

Jonas 49.50 35.80

Logan Luce 49.34 41.51

Hayden Arse 53.49 44.44

George H 38.75 28.15

LeftofThere 48.17 34.13

Kurtyboy 55.42 27.22

Michael Man 50.74 41.66

Robert H 52.50 42.50

Brock 51.87 39.45

Anthony S 54.65 41.15

FearitSelf 53.63 39.35

Jeff H 47.40 38.30

Asher N 59.88 33.92

Shannon M 49.78 49.28

Frequently C 53.32 37.32

Emily F 49.25 33.32

Philip M 52.40 37.78

Christopher G 52.10 41.60

Three front pagers also made predictions, although they are not eligible for any prizes, other than the thrill of victory.

Lemieux 51.93 41.71

DJW 51.05 44.45

Campos 53.32 41.33