The Trades

As interested parties will be aware, both the #1 and #2 picks in the NFL draft were traded away, moves which are interesting for multiple reasons.

One reason it’s interesting is that the players who will go #1 and #2 represent a classic scouts vs. analytics dispute. The analysis suggests that Jared Goff is, in fact, a genuine grade A prospect, getting a lot of starts and showing excellent accuracy against tough competition. Of QBs with similar college performance, two (Manning and Rodgers) are inner circle Hall of Famers, four are stars (Roethlisberger, Rivers, Wilson, McNabb), one a very good QB derailed by injuries (Palmer), one an OK QB derailed by injuries (Leftwich), and Mariota. That’s pretty impressive company. Apparently, though, a lot of scouts don’t like his arm strength. And they could well be onto something; they could also be wrong (cf. “Russell Wilson doesn’t meet an arbitrary height target and therefore isn’t 1st round material. Brandon Weeden, now there’s someone who looks like a quarterback!”) We should probably also remember what happened the last time scouts came up with all sorts of ad hoc reasons to explain why a highly accomplished Cal QB was not really all that great. Scouts prefer Wentz’s physical skills, but his track record (only two seasons as a starter, good but not superlative accuracy, very weak competition) suggests both a lower floor and a lower ceiling — his comps include some solid pros (Flacco, Dalton, Kaepernick(?)), some busts (Smith, Stanton, Lynch) and some unprovens. I wouldn’t read too much into Wentz’s numbers –it’s of course appropriate to discount his numbers because of the competition, but it will produce some false negatives — and given how much scouts like his tools he’s a decent prospect, although I think the Rams are unquestionably doing the right thing if they take Goff, which they apparently will.

Anyway, we can analyze the trades for all four teams:

TENNESSEE: Obviously, given the rich haul and the fact that they already have a grade A prospect at QB, an absolute no-brainer. A PLUS

CLEVELAND: The only caveat I would have is that the Browns don’t have a QB, and I would be reluctant to pass up the chance to get a franchise player. But, still, 1)a franchise with a ton of holes just got a nice haul of premium draft picks, and 2)most likely they’re effectively trading Wentz, not Goff, and while Wentz is certainly a better bet than any QB on their roster I don’t think you need a top 2 pick to find a high variance gamble like Wentz. (In addition, given that the case for him is based more on raw tools than performance accomplishments, he’s unlikely develop into a franchise player on a team with as little surrounding talent as the Browns.) Building a store of draft picks is the best organization-building strategy overall. Excellent trade for the Browns. A

ST. LOUIS: DAMMIT, LOS ANGELES: This is the most interesting team. I think there should be a strong presumption against giving up as much value as the Rams did. In this specific case, I think it’s at least defensible. 1)Goff is really an outstanding prospect, one with a real chance to develop into a franchise QB and will almost certainly be decent. 2)The Rams have a top 10 defense, and there’s more talent on the roster than their defensive performance reflects. If Goff is even good they could take a major leap forward. 3)They don’t have a remotely acceptable option at QB. 4)Every year they don’t have a credible QB is another year the defensive depth they built through the RGIII trade gets older. 5)They share a division with a championship team with a first-rate QB/coach/GM trinity in place and another very well-run organization, which makes taking a high-upside gamble more attractive. I don’t love the trade, given both what they gave up and that they’re not giving their QB a lot to work with, but it’s reasonable. B MINUS

PHILADELPHIA: Like the Rams, they gave up a ton. But all the mitigating factors that make it potentially defensible for the Rams cut the other way with the Eagles. 1)While the Rams at least have a potentially outstanding defense, the Eagles have one of the worst rosters in the league. (And their decision to tie up a lot of money in an injury-prone, below average QB and his even less palatable backup not only looks even worse now but represents resources that can’t be used to fill any of the team’s many holes.) 2)The Rams are apparently taking Goff and I don’t like Wentz is nearly enough to give up what they did. 3)The case for Wentz is that he has the raw skills to represent a higher upside than Goff. To justify a #2 pick, therefore, he will have to be a development success story. The Eagles will be offering a green head coach, a bad offensive line, and a bunch of replacement-level hacks for Wentz to throw to, plus no first round pick next year. Good luck with that. Unless they get lucky and have Goff fall into their laps, I think there’s a good chance this trade will be a disaster, and I certainly think they gave up way too much. Chip may be gone, but his spirit apparently lingers. D MINUS