Today In Andy Reid
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Barnwell has long railed against the all-downside no-upside end-of-the-first half draw play. Essentially, you’re taking on the risk of injury or turnover in exchange for a negligible chance of a big enough gain to even get into field goal range. Either you should actually make a serious attempt to run a drive or take a knee.
The draw play with less than thirty seconds left at the end of a tie game in the second half is even worse. A lost fumble essentially ends the game, and Charles could get hurt. Even Charles is enormously unlikely to break that play for 40+ yards, and Denver has an excellent defense that is very good at forcing turnovers. (For the record, in the previous 2 years Charles has three runs of over 40 yards and 9 fumbles. I suspect that for this play the expected ratio would if anything be less favorable.) Obviously, most of the time you would get away with it bit it’s a really, really dumb risk.