The market at work
By Score:
New England 23
San Diego 14
Game situation:
San Diego at 8:41
S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 35 to end zone, Touchback.
1st and 10 at SD 20 (8:41) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short middle to D.Brown to SD 44 for 24 yards (D.McCourty, B.Browner).
1st and 10 at SD 44 (7:56) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to M.Floyd [A.Ayers].
2nd and 10 at SD 44 (7:49) (Shotgun) P.Rivers sacked at SD 43 for -1 yards (sack split by Chr.Jones and S.Siliga).
3rd and 11 at SD 43 (7:06) (Shotgun) P.Rivers right end to 50 for 7 yards (D.McCourty).
4th and 4 at 50 (6:28) N.Novak punts 38 yards to NE 12, Center-M.Windt, fair catch by D.Amendola.
SD DRIVE TOTALS: 4 plays, 30 yards, 2:23
New England at 6:18
How much do these guys get paid to figure this stuff out?
Is this money being well spent?
This paper examines a single, narrow decision—the choice on fourth down in the
National Football League between kicking and trying for a first down—as a case
study of the standard view that competition in the goods, capital, and labor markets
leads firms to make maximizing choices. Play-by-play data and dynamic
programming are used to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and trying for a
first down under different circumstances. Examination of teams’ actual decisions
shows systematic, clear-cut, and overwhelmingly statistically significant departures
from the decisions that would maximize teams’ chances of winning. Possible
reasons for the departures are considered.
Bill Belichick has read Romer’s paper.
Speaking of labor markets, game announcers Al Michaels and Cris Collingsworth, who according to the Internet get paid $5 million and $2 million respectively, did not consider San Diego’s decision to punt in this situation worthy of any comment.