King MVP?

There is of course no serious controversy over the Al Cy Young award this year, although since our blog is the home of some commenters who are slightly bigger (although far, far less annoying) White Sox homers than Hawk Harrelson, I guess I have to briefly explain why. (While we’re here, said homers have been repeatedly offended that I called the White Sox team that has been outscored by 70 runs despite a rookie slugging .600 “horrible.” For the record, with the emergence of Abreu I hereby upgrade the White Sox from “horrible” to “very bad.”) The question of whether King Felix or Sale has been better on an inning-by-inning basis is an interesting one; Hernandez has a significantly better xFIP, Sale has a better K rate. But for the Cy Young award that’s not the question. The question is whether you’d rather have (so far) 191 innings of Felix or 136 innings of Sale and 45 innings of the pitching-like stylings of Andre Rienzo. This question is only difficult if you use the same kind of logic that causes you to not see a dime’s worth of difference between Ted Cruz and Barack Obama.

The really interesting question is whether Hernandez has been the most valuable player in the league. I was prepared to scoff at the idea when a commenter brought it up, but in fact it’s a strong case. He’s the leader and fWAR and 3rd in bWAR. Interestingly, neither Fangraphs or Baseball Reference have Trout as the 31 position player; fWAR likes Alex Gordon and bWAR likes Donaldson. Keri does a good job of explaining why, but essentially the best measurements suggest that Trout has been a below-average CF while Gordon and Donaldson are exceptional defensive players. (The Dewan +/- reaches the same conclusion; Gordon and Donaldson have been exceptional, Trout below average.) I’d still be inclined to vote for Trout, clearly the best hitter, because we can’t be as precise about defensive numbers. (If Gordon was the CF and Trout the LF, I might change my mind.) But Gordon could be the best; he’s a fantastic defensive LF on a team winning its division on defense and a solid hitter. On the philosophical question, I might vote against a pitcher in a too-close-to-call case because of the CY Young, but otherwise think they should be fully considered (as the rules require). The “only every fifth day” argument is dumb; value is value.

If I had to vote today, I’d have it:

1. Trout
2. King Felix
3. Gordon
4. Cano
5. Donaldson

But this isn’t a year with a runaway winner like last year; unless someone really pulls away in September, it’s close enough and the defensive metrics aren’t quite precise enough to answer the question definitively. You can make a decent case for several players. (Also, the Mariners have two MVP candidates and another top-10 player, which explains how they’ve compiled the second-best run differential in the league despite playing several players who dream of being replacement level for much of the year.)