Divisional Round Open Thread
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Saints (+9) over SEAHAWKS Between mild optimism and pure terror, I can’t really objectively analyze this game; I should just turn it over to Barnwell. This much seems clear: the Seahawks are the better team playing at home, and the difference between them is much less than the beatdown earlier this year would indicate. I certainly think Seattle is likely to win, but 9 points seems like an awful lot for game with two good teams that will apparently be played in a near-monsoon. I will feel a lot better about Seattle both today and going forward if Harvin seems at least vaguely healthy!
Colts (+7 1/2) over PATRIOTS I’d still take Brady over Luck, although it’s getting close. On the other hand, the Patriot defense is pretty much like what the Chiefs had to field in the second half. Admittedly, Belichick with two weeks to prepare is unlikely to let Hilton run free the way the Chiefs did, but it’s still hard to imagine Luck being unable to move the ball. Brady will too, but in what could well be a last-team-with-the-ball-wins shoutout, I like the points. And let us not forget the game’s secret weapon: for the price of a mere first-rounder,* the Colts were able to acquire the 45th best running back to get 100 carries in the NFL this year! Alas, he’s been so terrible that he’s unlikely to be the boost for New England by soaking up plays that might otherwise be used productively than he otherwise might have been.
PANTHERS (+1) over 49ers. Instinctively, I like the Niners too, and I think Crabtree coming back helps a lot. But there isn’t a lot to choose between these times — San Fransisco has a better offense, but Carolina actually had the better defense — so it’s hard for me not to pick the home underdog. Although games like this underline why I bet blog posts nobody remembers a week later rather than actual money on NFL games…
Chargers (+9 1/2) over Broncos Since Rivers was almost as good as Manning this year, the key question is whether the performance of the San Diego’s defense last week shows some real improvement or was an product of the Bengals’s ineptitude. My guess is that it’s mostly the latter — and isn’t hiring the person responsible for Cincinatti’s offense very Dan Snyder of Dan Snyder — but it does suggest that the Charger pass defense isn’t quite as horrible as it was in the first half. So, again, this looks like a shootout, and while you have to prefer Manning at home, it’s hard to pass up nearly ten points, especially since San Diego isn’t overmatched.
*The Richardson heist would seem reason for Browns fans to be optimistic about the new management, just as trading up to draft Richardson was a definitive example of the ineptitude of the old one. But I’m not sure what’s more pathetic — giving serious consideration to hiring Josh “I traded up for Tim Tebow and that probably wasn’t the worst move of my comically disastrous tenure” McDaniels, or being turned down by Josh McDaniels. It seems worth noting again that off all of the Belichick assistants to get head coaching jobs, Eric Mangini remains the best one.