2012 Prediction Review
By The prediction process for 2012 went better than for 2011:
World Series Champion: Texas Rangers (San Francisco Giants)
College Basketball National Champion: Kentucky Wildcats
Israeli Strikes on Iran:0
3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth: 2.0% (2.0-2.7-3.1)
Number of Syrian Presidents named Assad on 12/31/12: 1
North Korean nuclear tests: 1 (0)
November 2012 Unemployment: 8.1% (7.7%)
Democratic seats, Senate: 47 (53+)
Democratic seats, House: 220 (201)
GOP Presidential Nominee: Mitt Romney
Barack Obama Electoral Votes: 272 (332)
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 485 (405)
Giving myself half points for GDP (nailed the revised number) and for Obama (at least I picked the right guy). That makes 5 out of 12, a dramatic improvement And now for 2013:
World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds
Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1
Academy Award, Best Picture: Lincoln
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 315 (+/- 15)
North Korean nuclear tests: 1
Sunsets on the Syria under President of Bashar al-Assad: 75 (+/- 7)
College Basketball National Champion: Louisville Cardinals
Heisman Trophy: Marcus Mariota
Israeli strikes on Iran: 0
Egyptian Military Coups: 1
Supreme Court vacancies: 1
2013 3rd Quarter GDP growth: 3.2% (+/-.2%)
Number of former Russian aircraft carriers delivered to Indian Navy: 0
Barack Obama approval rate, 12/31/13: 51.3% (+/- .3%)
See also Dave Weigel and Jonathan Bernstein on the subject of predictions. On the more substantive review/prediction industry, see McGrath (maritime trends) and Feng (naval developments in China from 2012).