NFL Round Two Thread
By New Orleans at San Fransisco: Really interesting game. While the Lions, while not bad, are essentially an inferior version of the Saints playing on their home turf, the 49ers are an outstanding defensive team, with great special teams. And we all know that the Saints blew it against a much worse western team on the road last year. So it’s pretty hard to turn down a home underdog. But against what is probably my better judgment, I would leave the points. Harbaugh looks like an exceptional in-game coach but it’s not like he’s going to have a big edge against Payton, I don’t like the idea of trying to keep up with Drew Brees with field goals, and I’ll believe Alex Smith can win a playoff game against a Hall of Fame QB when I see it. SAINTS -3 1/2
Denver at New England: No way around it: Tebow deserves credit, and whatever you can say about Pittsburgh’s game plan, he was extremely effective against it and that’s all you can ask. But apologists aside, the Steelers game plan was uncharacteristically foolish. It’s not exactly that you want to force Tebow to throw per se as that you want to force him to throw short and medium passes to slot receivers and tight ends. I don’t think even his staunchest critics would deny that he’s capable of throwing a decent deep ball to a wide-open wideout. As Tom Scocca says, Tebow is pretty bad but LeBeau treated him as if he wasn’t capable of making throws that many running backs and wideouts can make. The Pats defense is weak enough that Denver’s replacement level QB should be able to move the ball some this week too, but Belichick not going serve up the same steady diet of Cover 0 that Tomlin and Lebeau did; his shitty cover people are going to get help against Demaryius Thomas, and this is going to make it harder for Tebow to avoid sacks and turnovers. (The combination of fifth-stringers and converted receivers in the Pats secondary is almost a perverse advantage; Belichick won’t have any illusions about the quality of his personnel, while for reasons that are not obvious Tomlin and LeBeau seem to think that Ike Taylor is good.) The Bronocs will probably have a better game as a result, but if you need to have Willis McGahee with upwards of 300 carries on the odometer to offset Tom Brady…good luck with that. Paul will be happy when I’m proven wrong again, but I see a blowout. PATRIOTS – 13 1/2.
Houston at Baltimore. If Schaub were healthy, I think this would be a really nice 3 point upset pick; the Texans have gone from perennial underachiever to solid across the board. But I can’t pick a very green, not very talented rookie against the league’s best defense on the road. RAVENS -7 1/2
New York at the Thawed Tundra of Green Bay: The Giants have become a popular upset pick, and I can see it — pass rush + good QB with a lot of weapons is your best shot against the Packers. On the other hand, on the way to a season that looked like it would be outstanding. Eli laid enough eggs in the last third of the season to settle in with the Ryans and Staffords in the very good-not-great class. So people may be overrating their chances a little — but given their real chance to win it’s hard to leave more than a TD on the table. Very gingerly, GIANTS + 7 1/2.
UPDATE: There is a typo in the post above. What it should have read is “I have always loved Alex Smith. There’s nobody you’d rather have the ball with the game on the line. He just. wins. football. games.” I regret the error.
UPDATE THE SECOND: “Tom Brady now has more TD passes to tight ends (4) than Tim Tebow has completions (still 3).”