NFL Picks/Open Thread
By Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore: I wish it weren’t so, too, but the Steelers have a major edge as well as a major asshole at QB, are home, and it’s not like the Ravens have a substantially superior defense.
Green Bay (+1) over Atlanta: Frankly, part of me thinks that Atlanta might pull it out at home, but I don’t want four home teams and the Packers are certainly better on a neutral field.
Chicago (-10) over Seattle : As Bill James says, it’s fun to believe in Cinderella, but you have to believe in midnight too. In particular, Lynch is unlikely to do a second Barry Sanders impression, and Smith is smart enough not to play into Hasselbeck’s hands by going blitz-crazy.
New England (-8.5) over Jets Sort of like the way they stopped giving MVP awards to Mantle and Mays well before they stopped being the best player in the league, Brady’s historic season has gotten surprisingly little attention. I do think the Pats defense is more vulnerable than the second half suggests, but 1)I doubt Brian Schottenheimer (who can get as conservative as the old man under pressure) is the guy to expose the vulnerabilities, and 2)the thing the Jets do best on defense — stop the run and take away the #1 receiver — won’t help that much against New England. It’s hard to beat Brady without a good 4-man pass rush, and the Jets have trouble getting to the QB when they blitz. It probably won’t be 45-3 again, but I wouldn’t bet on it being close in the 4th quarter either.