Mexico v USA

This one is being somewhat blown out of proportion.  While Mexico are uncharacteristically struggling in the qualifiers for 2010,  the 5-0 stomping of the USA in the Gold Cup final doesn’t matter, and their FIFA ranking is a near historic low 30th (the USA is 12th), the USA do not win this match.  Sorry.

Why?  Sure, the USA beat Spain, and played respectably against Brazil.  However, in their last 23 matches in Mexico City, they are 0-22-1.  No wins, one draw, and 22 defeats.  Additionally, I tend to put more faith in the Elo rankings over the FIFA rankings.  For example, the USA were ranked something silly like 4th for a while according to FIFA.  Indeed this is true: 4th in May of 2006.  And didn’t the USA look just great in Germany that summer?  Elo have the USA 16th, Mexico 11th, though it should be said that this, too, is not 100% reliable, as I think Elo was overly affected by the Gold Cup performance; the previous month the USA were 9th according to Elo.

While the US players are talking the good talk, I like the resurgent Giovani dos Santos, (shame he plays for Spurs however), and the US have had problems playing at 35,000 7,350 feet in front of 18,000,000 105,000 hostile fans.

Speaking of altitude, I’m off to hike part of the Pacific Crest Trail for a week or so in about half an hour, with my lovely partner, her father and a couple of her brothers (one of whom I understand is a fan of LGM).  We’ll be somewhere between 5,000 and 6,500 feet over our route, if I know how to read the map.  Hence, I’ll be off the grid for a spell, which means I’ll miss this match, but at least I’ve got a fifth of Sazerac Rye Whiskey packed away in my provisions.  I suspect it will come in handy.