Health Care Reform Prospects

This is certainly right on the merits:

For Gingrich and his allies, the health care debate wasn’t really about health care: it was about destroying the power of a Democratic President.

It’s not surprising that the Republicans have remembered that lesson, but it’s disappointing that the “centrist” Democrats have forgotten it. This bill is make or break for the Democratic Party, and Harry Reid ought to enforce party discipline on the cloture vote. No on cloture should mean no subcommittee chair, no pork, and no money from the DSCC.

Alas, I’m also inclined to think that Benen is right on the politics:

It occurs to me, then, that there’s at least a possibility that “centrist” Democrats — Blue Dogs, New Democrats, Lieberman, et al — might not see failure as such a horrible option here. In other words, they may realize that coming up short on health care, letting this opportunity slip away, and hurting millions of Americans in the process may be devastating for the Democratic majority, but these same “centrist” Democrats may prefer a smaller majority, or perhaps even a GOP majority to “balance” the Democratic president. They may very well disagree with the party’s leadership on most issues, and think the best course of action is taking away their power by undermining the party’s agenda.

It seems odd that these “centrist” Democrats would forget the lessons of 1993 and 1994. But alternatively, are we sure they have forgotten those lessons, or have they learned those lessons all too well?

Alas, I think this is right. It’s not that Blue Dogs don’t know that defeating health care would be a major blow to the Democratic Party, it’s that they don’t care. And while I’d like to think that Reid would apply enough pressure to alter the incentives a little, well, I’d like to think that the Mets could remain competitive while fielding 6 or 7 replacement level players and 1 proven starter, but they’re about equally likely.