The Post You’ve All Been Waiting For!

If it’s mid-April, it must be time for the joint Berube–Lemieux Stanley Cup Playoff preview. Michael’s picks are here, and I’m dismayed that he’s not giving the Flames more respect after watching them humiliate the Rangers at MSG. Although, right, that came when some of our good defensemen were healthy. Never mind. In his spirit, I’m going to try not to just pick the chalk

The picks:

West

(1)SJ vs. (8) ANA This is an incredibly tempting upset pick. Any team with defensemen like Pronger and Niedermayer is a live dog, Giguere (despite is uneven year) has been to two finals and won one, and I like Carlyle. Still, this is a much older and thinner team, and before the matchups I thought that this really would be San Jose’s year, and I’ll stick with that. It won’t be easy, though. Sharks in 6.

(2)DET vs. (7) CLB Despite having seen them choke up a 3-goal lead live, my main impression of the Red Wings is just the obvious one: that they’re scary, scary good. Lidstrom — who I think might be the best defenseman of my hockey-watching lifetime, including Bourque — has barely lost a step, he’s well backed-up, and the forwards remain superb. Hossa was a terrific signing. I generally don’t like to pick teams in their first playoff run. And yet — partly to send a message that I don’t think the Wings will get out of the strong conference again — I’m going to pick the upset. Hithcock’s superb defensive coaching will, I think, mitigate the first-year jitters effect, and the general profile of the team seems similar to the ones that have pulled similar upsets (especially the Ducks). I also think Mason is the real deal, which brings us to the one thing about the Red Wings’ slight playoff underachievement Michael didn’t mention: Holland has, for reasons I can’t fathom, repeatedly taken his Bentley of a team and outfitted it with Lada goaltending. The rest of the team is so good that he’s gotten away with it more than he should, but I don’t think they can win with by far the first goaltending in the playoffs again. It may not catch up to them in Round 1, but it will. BLUE JACKETS IN 7.

(3)VAN vs. (6) STL Given that Luongo is the best goaltender in the conference and St. Louis (though on a nice streak) is the weakest of the teams new to the party, this is the easiest one for me to call in the conference. Vancouver probably doesn’t have the firepower to get to the finals, but they’re too well-disciplined to lose to a clearly inferior team. CANUCKS IN 5.

(4)CHI vs. (5) CGY I should probably be standing up for my team here, and you can make a case. As I’ve said, I don’t like first-time playoff teams, and I’m not sure Chicago’s defense is physical enough. Though once again uneven in the regular season Kiprusoff is talented enough to get very hot in the playoffs (cf. getting the Flames to Game 6 OT against Detroit in a series in which they were otherwise completely dominated in every game two years ago, after beating them two years before that), and their forwards are the deepest and most skilled in the conference after the big 2, and Bourque is apparently ready to go. If they can get far enough to get Regehr healthy, they could be very dangerous. But that’s the rub. I agree with Michael that you can’t pick a team facing the kind of skill Chicago has with their best defenseman out and their #2 and #3 gimpy. And Khabibulin owns the Flames. HAWKS IN 5.

EAST

(1)BOS vs. (8) MTL Since I picked Boston as a #8 seed last year, I’m certainly not giving up on them this year. I think that this year’s mediocrity is much closer to the Habs‘ real level than last year’s fluky #1 seed. BRUINS IN 5.

(2)WAS v. (7)NYR Sort of a similar dynamic to the 2-7 matchup in the West — the underdog has the Stanley Cup coach and the better goaltender. Except that Washington ain’t nearly as good as the Wings, even if they have the best player the sport and Green has become the defenseman Phanuef was supposed to be. I like the upset. RANGERS IN 7.

(3)NJ vs. (6)CAR A lot of people see the upset here, because the Devils slumped a bit before the playoffs. But I see the Devils as similar to the Canucks — don’t quite have the offense to go all the way, but it will take a clearly better team to beat them. DEVILS IN 6.

(4)PIT vs. (5)PHI Very interesting series, and tempted to pick the upset as my gut all year has told me that the Penguins won’t get back to the finals quite yet. But I don’t like the matchup the Flyers have; I think Malkin, Crosby et al. will survive at least one round. PENS IN 5.