Venezuela Meddling in Cuba?

The idea that Raul Castro may have moved against Venezuelan proxies in Cuba is fascinating, but there doesn’t seem to be much to it. That is, I have no doubt that the removal of Deputy Prime Minister Carlos Lage Davila and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque can be understood as Raul consolidating his power, and further that he understands that his most stable support comes from the army. What I don’t see is the Venzuela connection; it’s possible that Chavez was working with Carlos Lage Davila, but there doesn’t appear to be any strong evidence. When dictatorships experience peaceful leadership transitions, these kinds of things happen; Raul’s position is less stable than that of his brother, and consequently he moved early on to consolidate his power and authority by removing potential rivals.

I hasten to add that when we gamed out the Cuba succession two years ago at Patterson, Raul disposed of Carlos Lage Davila and several other competitors on the first day. The circumstances were different, of course, but the point is that you don’t need a conspiracy in order to have a purge.