Selling the product

USC coach Pete Carroll isn’t happy about QB Mark Sanchez’s decision to enter the NFL draft. Of course that decision is bad for Carroll’s team, but Carroll is sophisticated enough to know that, for recruiting purposes, that can’t be the basis of his objection to Sanchez leaving (Carroll’s recruiting pitch is largely about how USC prepares players for the NFL).

So Carroll cites what he claims is a high failure rate for QBs who enter the draft early. He doesn’t compare that rate to the success rate of senior entrants, so it’s a useless statistic.

His other claim is that NFL teams would prefer for Sanchez not to enter the draft this year, since they don’t see Sanchez as a “finished product.” This is such an absurd argument — as if Sanchez’s decision ought to turn on what NFL teams think is good for them! Of course they would prefer for Sanchez to spend another year at USC — that lessens their risk by giving them more information about what they’re buying. However it greatly increases Sanchez’s risk. Maybe he’ll get hurt. Maybe he’ll have a less than stellar year.

As it stands, Sanchez will surely be one of the two top QBs in the draft, because several top juniors decided not to come out. That practically guarantees him a first round selection, which in turn guarantees him several million (and potentially tens of millions) dollars in signing bonus money.

From an economic perspective it would be crazy for Sanchez not to enter the draft. Carroll’s argument is essentially that Sanchez will be getting $10 million now, but he might get $50 million if he stays another year. Assuming Sanchez’s current net worth is around zero, this argument is very weak. In practical terms, the difference between zero net worth and $10 million is almost infinitely larger than the difference between $10 million and $50 million. And Sanchez’s odds of going from being worth $10 million to zero in the next year are way, way higher than his odds of going from $10 million to $50 million.