No Endgame

I don’t have many additional thoughts on the breaking of the Gaza ceasefire. The strategic aims seem clear; Hamas wished to provoke an Israeli attack in anticipation that the reaction will help Hamas seize control of the West Bank. Israel wants to damage Hamas’ state infrastructure, and thus apply enough pain to the Palestinians that they move back towards Abbas, and incidentally give Kadima a chance to win the upcoming elections. Although Egypt and Abbas seem to be on board with the Israeli plan, I know which way I’m betting; people rarely respond to bombing by picking the more moderate option. I’m guessing that Hamas comes out of this stronger than before, although of course the Egyptian reaction could change things a bit by affecting Hamas logistical situation. Even then, though, the policy of the Egyptian government can be quite different than the actual behavior of the Egyptian border guards and inspectors who monitor commerce with Gaza.

The thing is, I very much doubt at this point that Hamas will ever become “a responsible partner for peace.” That Hamas owes its position in Palestinian life to Israel doesn’t really change this fact; after thirty years of claiming that the Palestinians have only maximal ends the Israelis successfully created a Palestinian group that has maximal ends. I could be wrong, of course, but I’m guessing that any relaxation of the siege of Gaza would be met by further Hamas-supported attacks on Israel, at least in the short term. In the longer term, hopefully people will get tired of all this.

I’ll leave you with Spencer’s thoughts:

Do you believe for a moment that leveling Gaza will stop the rockets? Well, then you’ve lost your right to call the peaceniks naive.